Coherent (COHR) Surges 7.7% on Intraday Rally: What’s Fueling the Momentum?

Summary
• Coherent (COHR) surges 7.73% to $154.00, hitting an intraday high of $154.42
• Turnover jumps to 883,513 shares, outpacing its 0.66% average turnover rate
• Sector peers like LITE (Lumentum) rise 3.29%, but COHR’s rally outpaces optical equipment benchmarks

Coherent’s intraday surge has captured market attention, driven by a combination of earnings optimism, sector tailwinds, and strategic positioning in AI-driven photonics. With the stock trading near its 52-week high of $168.57, investors are scrutinizing whether this rally reflects sustainable demand or a short-term technical rebound. The optical equipment sector, led by LITE’s 3.29% gain, is showing signs of strength, but COHR’s 7.7% move suggests a more aggressive re-rating.

Q3 Earnings Beat and Guidance Drive COHR’s Intraday Surge
Coherent’s 7.7% rally is anchored by its Q3 fiscal 2026 results, which showed a 17% year-over-year revenue increase to $1.58 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $1.16, up from $0.67. The company also announced the repayment of $400 million in debt, signaling improved balance sheet flexibility. Analysts highlighted upbeat guidance, projecting EPS of up to $1.30, which has bolstered investor confidence. Additionally, the stock’s recent volatility—47 moves of over 5% in the past year—suggests a market accustomed to sharp swings, with today’s move reflecting optimism about AI-driven demand for photonics and datacenter infrastructure.

Optical Equipment Sector Gains Momentum as LITE Rises 3.29%
The optical equipment sector, represented by LITE’s 3.29% gain, is benefiting from broader AI and datacenter demand. However, COHR’s 7.7% surge outpaces peers, reflecting its unique positioning in high-margin laser and optical component markets. While LITE focuses on communications and industrial lasers, COHR’s recent product innovations—such as the Axon FP femtosecond laser—position it to capture premium pricing in scientific and medical applications. This divergence highlights COHR’s ability to leverage niche demand amid sector-wide tailwinds.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Contracts and ETF Strategy for COHR’s Rally
• RSI: 56.01 (neutral to overbought)
• MACD: 6.49 (bullish divergence from signal line 8.20)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 154.00 (above middle band 140.64, near upper band 164.75)
• 200D MA: 91.91 (far below current price, indicating long-term bullish trend)

COHR’s technicals suggest a continuation of its rally, with key support at $148.84 (intraday low) and resistance at $164.75 (Bollinger upper band). The RSI hovering near 56 indicates momentum is intact, while the MACD histogram’s negative value (-1.72) suggests short-term bearish pressure may subside. Traders should monitor the 200D MA as a critical long-term floor.

Top Options Contracts:
• COHR20251128C150 (Call, $150 strike, Nov 28 expiry):
- IV: 54.21% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 19.35%
- Delta: 0.6636 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.7017 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0277 (high sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: 4,210 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% upside): $7.70 per contract (ST = $161.70)
- Why it stands out: High gamma and moderate delta make this contract ideal for capitalizing on a continuation of the rally, with liquidity ensuring easy entry/exit.

• COHR20251128C152.5 (Call, $152.5 strike, Nov 28 expiry):
- IV: 43.42% (low)
- Leverage Ratio: 28.14%
- Delta: 0.6048 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.6300 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0365 (very high)
- Turnover: 10,842 (highly liquid)
- Payoff (5% upside): $9.15 per contract (ST = $161.70)
- Why it stands out: High gamma and liquidity make this the top pick for aggressive bulls, as it amplifies gains if COHR breaks above $152.50.

Action Alert: Aggressive bulls should prioritize COHR20251128C152.5 into a breakout above $152.50, while conservative traders may use COHR20251128C150 for a safer entry. Both contracts offer high leverage and liquidity to capitalize on COHR’s momentum.

Backtest Coherent Stock Performance
Key findings from the event study of “8 %-or-greater intraday price surges” in Coherent (COHR.N) since 2022:• Sample size: 16 events (first: 2022-02-10; last: 2025-10-02) • Average path: the day of the surge added only 0.05 %, and the next week drifted lower. • Positive absolute edge arises only after ~10–12 trading days; beyond 2 weeks, average excess return vs. benchmark grows to ~+7 % but with no statistical significance. • Win-rate improves from c. 40 % short-term to ~60 % after 10+ sessions, but the small sample prevents firm conclusions.Implication: a single-factor “buy the 8 % intraday spike” rule has offered, at best, delayed and statistically weak upside. Consider adding filters (volume, news driver, market regime) or tightening entry/exit logic before allocating capital.Please explore the interactive report for full curves, distribution charts and parameter controls.(Open or refresh the canvas on the right if it is not displayed automatically.)

Act Now: COHR’s Rally Shows Strength—Position for Next Move
COHR’s 7.7% surge is underpinned by strong earnings, AI-driven demand, and a technical setup favoring continuation. While the 52-week high of $168.57 remains a distant target, the stock’s proximity to the Bollinger upper band and positive RSI suggest momentum is intact. Investors should watch for a break above $164.75 to confirm the rally’s sustainability. Meanwhile, sector leader LITE’s 3.29% gain reinforces the optical equipment sector’s strength. Act now: Buy COHR20251128C152.5 if the price holds above $148.84, or short-term traders may scalp gains near $154.00 before the Nov 28 expiry.