Coffee Prices Surge as Droughts Worry Growers, Investors

Coffee prices have reached their highest level since April 1977, with futures surging to $2.19 per pound, as droughts in Brazil and Vietnam threaten global coffee supplies. The rally has been driven by concerns about crop damage in the two largest coffee-producing nations, where weather conditions have been particularly challenging.

Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, is facing its driest weather since 1981, damaging arabica coffee trees and reducing prospects for the 2025/26 crop. Meanwhile, Vietnam, the top robusta coffee producer, is grappling with heavy rainfall that could delay its coffee harvest. These conditions have led to a 24% increase in coffee prices since the beginning of 2024, with projections indicating prices may reach $2.07 by the end of the quarter and $2.26 in 12 months.

The recent coffee price rally is not just about production challenges, but also about consumer demand for sustainable and certified coffee. According to the Deloitte Coffee Study, consumers increasingly demand sustainable coffee, with certifications like Fair Trade and Organic ensuring social and ecological standards have been respected. This green stamp of approval is crucial for maintaining consumer loyalty and driving demand in the face of price increases, further fueling the coffee market's upward trajectory.

Market inventories and global trade dynamics also play a crucial role in determining coffee prices. As of November 2023, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories were at a 2-1/3 year high of 893,325 bags, indicating a moderate surplus. Meanwhile, robusta inventories fell to a 6-3/4 month low of 3,854 lots. Brazilian coffee export news has been bearish, with October exports rising 11% YoY and record exports in the 2023/24 season, suggesting increased supply. However, the USDA's bi-annual report projected a 4.2% increase in world coffee production in 2024/25, which could offset the impact of reduced supplies from Brazil and Vietnam.


The long-term consequences of the coffee price rally on the global coffee industry could be significant. As prices rise, consumers may shift towards cheaper alternatives or reduce consumption. Moreover, higher prices may discourage farmers from investing in new coffee plantations, potentially leading to a supply shortage in the long run. In response, coffee producers and traders should focus on sustainable farming practices and diversifying their supply chains to mitigate these risks.

Coffee production in other countries, such as Colombia and Ethiopia, could potentially fill the supply gap left by Brazil and Vietnam. Colombia's 2024/25 coffee production is projected at 15.5 MMT, up 7% y/y, while Ethiopia's is forecast to increase 5% to 7.5 MMT, according to USDA. However, both countries face climate-related challenges, with Colombia's La Niña phenomenon and Ethiopia's erratic rainfall threatening crop yields. Thus, while they might help offset supply shortages, they also face production risks.

Advancements in coffee cultivation and processing technology can help mitigate the impacts of climate change on coffee production. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning algorithms can optimize irrigation and fertilization, reducing water waste and increasing crop yields. Climate-smart agriculture practices, such as agroforestry and integrated pest management, can improve soil health, increase biodiversity, and enhance the resilience of coffee crops to climate change. Furthermore, new processing techniques can improve the efficiency and sustainability of coffee processing.

In conclusion, the coffee price rally is driven by a combination of production challenges, consumer demand for sustainability, and market inventories. To mitigate the long-term impacts of climate change on coffee production, investments in climate-resilient coffee varieties, innovative farming practices, and better weather forecasting technologies are crucial. Coffee producers and traders should also focus on sustainable farming practices and diversifying their supply chains to ensure a steady supply of high-quality coffee for consumers.