Coeur Mining Surges 5.8% on $7B New Gold Acquisition: Is This the Catalyst for a Silver Sector Rally?

Summary
• Coeur Mining (CDE) surges 5.83% to $17.135, hitting an intraday high of $17.24
• Announces $7B all-stock acquisition of New Gold, creating a $20B North American precious metals powerhouse
• Silver sector leader First Majestic (AG) jumps 12.12% as Coeur's deal sparks industry optimism

Coeur Mining’s stock is trading at its highest level in over a year amid a landmark $7 billion acquisition of New Gold, a deal that could redefine the silver and gold mining landscape. The 5.83% intraday gain reflects investor enthusiasm for the strategic merger, which combines Coeur’s U.S. operations with New Gold’s Canadian assets. With silver prices hitting record highs and the sector rallying, the move positions Coeur as a dominant player in a market primed for growth.

New Gold Acquisition Fuels EBITDA and Free Cash Flow Optimism
Coeur Mining’s 5.83% surge is directly tied to its $7 billion acquisition of New Gold, a transaction that creates a combined entity with seven North American operations and $3 billion in projected 2026 EBITDA. The deal, structured at $8.51 per New Gold share (a 16% premium), adds two Canadian mines to Coeur’s portfolio, significantly boosting production of gold, silver, and copper. Analysts highlight the accretive impact on free cash flow, with the combined company expected to generate $2 billion in 2026—up from Coeur’s standalone $550 million—while reducing costs and enhancing margins. The acquisition also unlocks exploration upside at New Afton’s K-Zone and Rainy River, positioning the company for long-term growth.

Silver Sector Bolstered by Coeur's Expansion
The silver sector is riding a wave of momentum, with Coeur’s acquisition amplifying industry optimism. First Majestic Silver (AG), the sector’s top performer, surged 12.12% on the same day, reflecting broader investor confidence in precious metals. Coeur’s deal aligns with a sector-wide trend of consolidation and exploration, as companies capitalize on tight silver supply and surging demand for industrial applications. With silver prices hitting $55.66 per ounce—a record—Coeur’s expanded production capacity and lower-cost operations position it to outperform peers in a market where supply deficits are expected to persist through 2026.

Options Playbook: Leveraging Coeur's Bullish Momentum
• RSI: 64.76 (neutral to overbought)
• MACD: -0.68 (bullish crossover near zero)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $17.135 (above middle band of $15.015)
• 200D MA: $10.73 (far below current price)

Coeur’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish trend, with key support at $14.38 and resistance at $18.00. The 64.76 RSI indicates strong momentum, while the MACD histogram’s positive divergence hints at sustained buying pressure. For traders, the CDE20251205C17.5 and CDE20251212C18 options offer compelling leverage.

CDE20251205C17.5 (Call, $17.5 strike, 12/5 expiry):
• IV: 63.18% (moderate)
• Leverage Ratio: 33.71%
• Delta: 0.446 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0755 (moderate time decay)
• Gamma: 0.2459 (high sensitivity to price moves)
• Turnover: 13,463
This contract offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on Coeur’s short-term rally. A 5% upside to $18.04 would yield a 129% payoff (max(0, 18.04 - 17.5) = $0.54).

CDE20251212C18 (Call, $18 strike, 12/12 expiry):
• IV: 68.34% (high)
• Leverage Ratio: 27.29%
• Delta: 0.4008 (moderate)
• Theta: -0.0474 (low time decay)
• Gamma: 0.1623 (high)
• Turnover: 16,975
This option’s high gamma and low theta make it ideal for a prolonged rally. A 5% move to $18.04 would generate a 70% payoff (max(0, 18.04 - 18) = $0.04).

Action: Aggressive bulls should target CDE20251205C17.5 for a 5-day upside play, while CDE20251212C18 suits a longer-term hold above $17.50.

Backtest Coeur Mining Stock Performance
Below is an interactive event-study report that evaluates how Coeur Mining (CDE.N) behaved after every trading-day close that followed an intraday surge of 6 % or more, from 3 Jan 2022 through 26 Nov 2025. Key facts (for quick context): • 88 qualifying surge events were detected. • Average 1-day excess return: +0.57 %, not statistically significant. • Over a 30-day window, cumulative excess return drifted to –2.37 % versus the benchmark, with no statistical significance at conventional levels. Please explore the full distribution of returns, win-rate curve, and optimal holding-period insights in the module. Guidance 1. Scroll or zoom within the chart section to inspect day-by-day excess returns and win-rate evolution. 2. Hover on points to view exact statistics. 3. Use these findings to refine potential trading rules (e.g., shorter holding periods, stops) or to test complementary signals.Auto-filled parameters & rationale • Backtest window: start_date set to first trading day of 2022 (2022-01-03) per your “from 2022” requirement; end_date is the most recent available price (2025-11-26). • Price basis: close prices, as intraday-surge signals are defined by daily close vs. prior close. • Event detection threshold: ≥ +6 % day-over-day close change. Feel free to let me know if you’d like to adjust thresholds, add risk controls, or test alternative event definitions.

Coeur's Acquisition Driven Rally: Time to Lock In Gains or Ride the Wave?
Coeur Mining’s acquisition of New Gold is a transformative event, creating a $20 billion North American mining giant with sector-leading free cash flow and exploration upside. With silver prices at record highs and the sector rallying, the stock’s 5.83% surge is likely sustainable as long as the $14.38 support holds. Investors should monitor the $18.00 resistance level and the performance of sector leader First Majestic (AG), which jumped 12.12% today. For those seeking leverage, the CDE20251205C17.5 option offers a high-gamma play on Coeur’s short-term momentum. Watch for a breakout above $18.00 or a breakdown below $14.38 to dictate next steps.