Coeur Mining's Q3 2025: Contradictions Emerge on Production, Tax Strategy, Crusher Performance, Labor Costs, and Palmarejo Grade Adjustments

Generated by AI AgentEarnings DecryptReviewed byAInvest News Editorial Team
Friday, Oct 31, 2025 5:46 am ET3min read
Aime RobotAime Summary

- Coeur Mining reported Q3 2025 revenue of $555M (metal sales), up 15% sequentially, with full-year EBITDA now expected to exceed $1B.

- Strong cash flow ($500M+ in Q3) and debt repayment ($228M in 2025) reduced net debt below $100M, with net debt/EBITDA projected at 0 by Q4 2025.

- Operational improvements at Las Chispas ($66M free cash flow, +34% QoQ) and Rochester (13% higher silver production) drove production gains through process optimizations.

- Management confirmed 2026 production targets remain achievable, with crusher upgrades and cost discipline supporting sustained momentum despite grade adjustments at Palmarejo.

Date of Call: October 30, 2025

Financials Results

  • Revenue: $555M (metal sales), up 15% sequentially (QoQ)

Guidance:

  • Cash balance expected to exceed $500 million at year-end 2025.
  • Full-year EBITDA now expected to exceed $1.0 billion.
  • Full-year free cash flow expected to top $550 million.
  • Net debt to EBITDA expected to reach 0 in Q4 2025 (net debt ratio 0.1x at quarter end).
  • 2025 production and cost guidance ranges were narrowed and modestly adjusted across mines.
  • Expect stronger Q4 2025 and position for a record 2026.

Business Commentary:

  • Financial Performance and Cash Flow:
  • Coeur Mining reported cash flow of over $500 million, exceeding expectations, and is set to be in a net cash position by year-end.
  • This growth was driven by higher realized prices for metals, strong production levels, and solid cost management.

  • Las Chispas' Performance and Integration:

  • Las Chispas operation generated $66 million in free cash flow in Q3, a 34% increase from the previous quarter.
  • The robust performance is attributed to the integration of the Las Chispas team after the SilverCrest acquisition, leading to consistent production and cost management.

  • Production and Cost Management at Rochester:

  • Rochester operation achieved a 3% increase in gold and 13% increase in silver production in Q3.
  • The improvement is a result of modifications to the crusher corridor, enhancing crushing efficiency, and cost controls in place.

  • Debt Reduction and Financial Position Improvement:

  • Coeur Mining repaid over $228 million in debt during 2025, reducing net debt below $100 million.
  • This progress is due to strong financial results, allowing for early debt repayment and improved financial position.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

  • "second consecutive quarter of record results"; "cash balance is growing rapidly and is expected to exceed $500 million at year-end"; "we now expect our full year EBITDA to exceed $1 billion and our full year free cash flow to top $550 million"; "we have repaid over $228 million in debt during 2025, driving our net debt below $100 million".

Q&A:

  • Question from Michael Siperco (RBC Capital Markets): Net of the guidance change and what you're seeing in the second half at the crusher, can you talk a bit more about what's needed to get the operation up to full capacity or steady state into 2026 from a throughput perspective?
    Response: Management implemented three crusher projects (primary access efficiency, split secondary systems, tertiary autosampler) that improve uptime, size control and productivity; remaining conveyor belt issue to be fixed in November and they expect positive momentum into 2026.

  • Question from Michael Siperco (RBC Capital Markets): Are the issues you've been addressing more normal course adjustments during a ramp-up or are you seeing more systemic problems with conveyors/wear/material that need larger readjustments?
    Response: Management framed the issues as normal ramp-up adjustments (belts, chute tweaks) typical for a large crusher train and expects benefits from recent fixes going forward.

  • Question from Michael Siperco (RBC Capital Markets): The original 2025 guidance called for roughly 20k oz gold and 2M oz silver in Q3/Q4 — is that still a quarterly run rate you feel confident can be reached next year?
    Response: Yes; management expects fourth-quarter momentum and sustained improvements into 2026 toward the targeted annualized crushing/production rates that underpin those run-rates.

  • Question from Michael Siperco (RBC Capital Markets): How are you thinking about other M&A opportunities and Silvertip in the longer term?
    Response: Focus remains on disciplined, jurisdiction- and metals-aligned M&A that uplifts quality; Silvertip is a longer-term growth option being assessed (initial study next year, potential PFS then feasibility) but not near-term.

  • Question from Joseph Reagor (ROTH Capital Partners): With the deferred tax asset recorded, what should we think about next year and beyond for the tax rate?
    Response: Go-forward effective U.S. tax rate should approximate federal 21% plus ~3% state (~24% total); timing depends on use of NOLs and could lead to paying U.S. income tax in 2026.

  • Question from Joseph Reagor (ROTH Capital Partners): Palmarejo and Las Chispas saw a drop in grade — was that sequencing or processing of stockpiles?
    Response: Management said it was largely sequencing/stockpile decisions and running more tons (including historic stockpiles); recoveries and mill capacity at Palmarejo supported processing lower-grade material.

  • Question from Kevin O'Halloran (BMO Capital Markets): Can you comment on unit cost trends and any main cost pressures across the portfolio?
    Response: Management sees a favorable cost environment: prior inflation controls holding, continued cost discipline, some higher royalties (notably Rochester) and a strong peso affecting costs but overall unit costs improving at most sites.

  • Question from Kevin O'Halloran (BMO Capital Markets): With higher metal prices, are you sending lower-grade ore to mills beyond Palmarejo or sticking to mine plans?
    Response: They aim to stick to mine plans annually but will opportunistically process marginal ore when recovery and throughput metrics justify it; Palmarejo is an example where lower-grade material recovered well and was processed.

Contradiction Point 1

Production Growth Focus

It shows a shift in the company's strategic focus, impacting investor expectations regarding production growth and resource allocation.

Given the guidance change and second-half crusher performance, what steps are needed to reach full capacity/steady state by 2026 in terms of throughput? - Michael Siperco (RBC Capital Markets, Research Division)

2025Q3: We have completed projects during the extended shutdown in July to improve productivity, such as enhancing primary operations, modifying secondary systems, and implementing an auto sampler for better size control. Additional minor modifications are planned for November to address unplanned downtime. The trend is positive, and we expect to see better results going forward. - Michael Routledge(COO)

What are the key factors to drive production growth in the near term? - Joseph Reagor (ROTH Capital Partners)

2025Q2: Focus on brownfield exploration potential around existing sites. There's immense potential at multiple sites, including Wharf, Palmarejo, Kensington, and Las Chispas. Optimization of Rochester and incremental improvements across the portfolio are key. - Mitchell J. Krebs(CEO) and Michael Routledge(COO)

Contradiction Point 2

Taxation and Cash Flow

It involves changes in tax strategies and cash flow expectations, which are critical for financial forecasting and investor decisions.

What should we consider regarding next year and beyond given the deferred tax asset? - Joseph Reagor (ROTH Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division)

2025Q3: Starting next year, we expect a federal tax rate of 21% and an average state tax rate of about 3%. This will result in a higher effective tax rate. There is potential to pay U.S. income tax in the future. - Thomas Whelan(CFO)

On a free cash flow basis, how should I account for taxes going forward? - Brian MacArthur (Raymond James)

2025Q2: Continue to use a 0 tax rate in the U.S. and consider Mexican taxes for cash tax estimation. Mexico pays quarterly installments and a true-up at the end of the first quarter along with the EBITDA tax. Coeur has $630 million in NOLs, but cash taxes are materially higher than the statutory rates due to prior losses. - Thomas S. Whelan(CFO)

Contradiction Point 3

Crusher Performance and Throughput

It directly affects the company's production capabilities and efficiency, impacting potential revenue and operational costs.

What steps are needed to reach full capacity or steady state by 2026 in terms of throughput, excluding the guidance change and second-half crusher performance? - Michael Siperco(RBC Capital Markets, Research Division)

2025Q3: We have completed projects during the extended shutdown in July to improve productivity, such as enhancing primary operations, modifying secondary systems, and implementing an auto sampler for better size control. Additional minor modifications are planned for November to address unplanned downtime. The trend is positive, and we expect to see better results going forward. - Michael Routledge(COO)

When will increased crushing circuit tonnage improve silver recoveries? Will DTP material percentage decrease over time? - Wayne Lam(TD Securities)

2025Q1: Crusher is performing well, delivering about 70% of material at 5% of an inch. DTP material, which was 1.5% in Q1, will likely decline as crusher availability improves. - Mick Routledge(COO)

Contradiction Point 4

Labor Costs and Inflation Management

It involves commentary on labor cost differentials and inflation management, which could impact operational costs and financial planning.

Can you provide an update on unit costs and the main cost pressures across the portfolio? - Kevin O'Halloran(BMO Capital Markets Equity Research)

2025Q3: We are still in a favorable cost environment with strong metal prices and relatively stable input costs. Cost controls put in place 3 years ago are holding true. There's no pressure from tariffs yet. Inflation from previous years was managed effectively. - Mitchell Krebs(CEO) and Michael Routledge(COO)

Are you seeing impact from lower labor costs in Mexico, and what cost pressures exist elsewhere? - Wayne Lam(TD Securities)

2025Q1: Labor cost differential with Las Chispas is yet to be seen. Overall labor cost should benefit with increased employment. No significant cost pressures noted. Cost per ounce remained flat despite 36% and 41% increases in silver and gold average realized prices. - Mitchell Krebs(CEO)

Contradiction Point 5

Mine Plan and Grade Adjustments at Palmarejo

This contradiction pertains to the explanation of grade adjustments at Palmarejo, which impacts production and profitability expectations.

What caused the grade decline at Palmarejo and Las Chispas, or is it due to sequencing? - Joseph Reagor (ROTH Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division)

2025Q3: At Palmarejo, we increased the throughput by 6% due to running historic stockpiles and adjusting to characteristics of newer ore. - Michael Routledge(COO)

On Slide 5 regarding Rochester, is the issue due to thermal load constraints or are grade tons under leach driving the back-half weighting? - Mike Parkin (National Bank)

2024Q4: The momentum of Rochester's production build-up over the year is the main driver for the back half-weighted outlook. - Mitchell Krebs(CEO), Michael Routledge(COO)

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