Coeur Mining (CDE): A High-Conviction Buy in the Precious Metals Bull Run

The precious metals sector is roaring into 2025, and Coeur Mining (CDE) stands out as a compelling high-conviction buy. Roth Capital's recent upgrade of its price target for CDE to $12—from $10—underscores a broader narrative: a structural bull market for gold and silver driven by industrial demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and inflationary pressures. With Coeur's recent operational and financial performance aligning with these macro trends, the stock is positioned to outperform in a sector on the move.

The Commodity Price Catalyst

Roth Capital's revised gold and silver price forecasts form the bedrock of this investment thesis. The firm now expects gold to peak at $3,300/oz in Q3 2025, up from $2,350 previously, while silver is projected to climb to $35.50/oz in Q3 2025 (from $27.65). These upward revisions reflect a perfect storm:
- Supply constraints: Declining ore grades and regulatory hurdles in mining.
- Demand surges: Silver's role in renewable energy and electric vehicles, plus gold's status as a safe haven amid global instability.
- Macroeconomic tailwinds: Central bank gold purchases, dollar weakness, and inflation expectations.

Coeur, a dual-producer of gold and silver, benefits directly from these dynamics. Its production guidance for 2025—380,000–440,000 ounces of gold and 16.7–20.3 million ounces of silver—is expected to grow by 20% and 62%, respectively, year-over-year. This surge is fueled by the acquisition of SilverCrest's Las Chispas mine in Mexico and the expansion of its Rochester operation in Nevada.

Operational and Financial Momentum

Coeur's Q1 2025 results were a masterclass in execution. Revenue jumped 69% YoY to $360.06 million, and the company swung from a $29.12 million net loss in Q1 2024 to $33.35 million in net income. This turnaround reflects disciplined cost management, higher commodity prices, and operational efficiency.

The $75 million share repurchase program announced in May 2025 further signals management's confidence. With a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.6x (down from 3.4x in late 2023), Coeur has de-leveraged aggressively, creating financial flexibility to reinvest in growth or reward shareholders.

Roth Capital's EPS forecasts—$0.18 for Q2, $0.23 for Q3, and $0.22 for Q4 2025—highlight the company's earnings trajectory. At current prices, CDE trades at a forward P/E of ~18x, well below the 25x average for gold miners. This discount reflects undervaluation in a sector where margins are expanding.

Strategic Positioning for the Bull Cycle

Coeur's recent acquisitions and operational expansions position it to capitalize on the current bull cycle. The Las Chispas mine, acquired in early 2025, is a high-grade, low-cost asset expected to contribute 42,500–52,500 ounces of gold and 4.25–5.25 million ounces of silver in 2025 alone. Meanwhile, the Rochester expansion is projected to deliver 75% higher silver production and 72% more gold compared to 2024.

The company's exploration spend of $16–18 million in 2025 targets resource growth, particularly at Palmarejo and Rochester. With inferred resources expanding and mine life extending, Coeur is building a long-term platform for sustainable growth.

Risks and Mitigants

No investment is without risks. A sharp drop in gold or silver prices could pressure margins, though the current bull market shows no signs of abating. Operational risks at newly acquired assets like Las Chispas exist, but Coeur's track record of integrating acquisitions (e.g., Rochester) suggests these are manageable.

Coeur's capital discipline—$26–32 million in 2025 CapEx—also mitigates overleveraging concerns. The company's focus on free cash flow generation, with positive cash flow expected in Q2 onward, further insulates it from volatility.

Conclusion: A High-Conviction Buy

With Roth Capital's $12 price target (a 52.6% upside from current levels) and a consensus analyst price target of $10.90, Coeur Mining is undervalued relative to its growth potential. The stock's 52.61% rally over the past three months reflects optimism, but the broader bull case for precious metals—driven by supply deficits and macroeconomic tailwinds—leaves room for further appreciation.

For investors seeking exposure to a high-quality miner with strong operational momentum, expanding margins, and a clear path to production growth, CDE is a rare opportunity. The bull case is not just about higher commodity prices—it's about a company that's winning in a sector on the rise.