Coca-Cola FEMSA Extends Slide to 4 Sessions with 6.38% Drop as Bearish Signals Converge

Candlestick Theory
Coca-Cola FEMSA (KOF) concluded a fourth consecutive bearish session on 2025-09-03, closing at 81.24 (−3.57%), with an extended lower wick indicating intraday buying interest failing to sustain momentum. The recent four-day decline (−6.38%) forms a bearish continuation pattern, highlighting persistent selling pressure. A critical support level emerges near 80.96 (2025-09-03 low), while resistance is established at 84.33 (2025-09-03 high) and 86.46 (2025-08-29 high). A sustained breach below 80.96 may signal further downside toward the January 2025 swing low of 75.28, whereas recovery above 84.33 could alleviate immediate bearish sentiment.
Moving Average Theory
The current price trades below all key moving averages, confirming a bearish structural trend. The 50-day MA (≈87.50) remains under the 100-day MA (≈89.80), both descending toward the flat 200-day MA (≈88.20), reflecting entrenched medium-term weakness. This configuration—shorter MAs below longer ones—signals sustained downward momentum. The lack of golden crosses and the widening gap between the 50-day MA and the price suggest no imminent trend reversal.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows a bearish histogram expansion below the signal line and zero axis, corroborating accelerating downward momentum. KDJ oscillators enter oversold territory (K: ≈25, D: ≈22, J: ≈31), with the J-line attempting a minor rebound. However, this oversold signal lacks conviction amid consistent negative MACD pressure. Divergence is absent, as both price and momentum indicators make lower lows, suggesting aligned bearish strength. A reversal would require MACD convergence and KDJ climbing above 30.
Bollinger Bands
Price action pierced the lower Bollinger Band (20-day SMA ≈84.40, σ≈2.0) on 2025-09-03, trading near the lower boundary amid a sharp band expansion. This volatility spike typically precedes directional follow-through. The extended breach and close below the lower band—combined with elevated volume—reinforce bearish momentum. Contraction toward the 20-day SMA (≈84.40) or upper band (≈88.40) would be necessary to signal stabilization.
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent distribution is validated by rising volume on down days, peaking at 463,423 shares on 2025-09-03 (−3.57%). This distribution phase contrasts with suppressed volume during minor rebounds, indicating weak buying conviction. The volume profile since the April 2025 peak (100.05) shows consistent churn on declines, supporting sustainability of the downtrend. For bullish reversal confirmation, volume must expand decisively on an upswing, currently absent.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (≈28) is deeply oversold (<30), nearing January 2025 extremes. Historically, such levels preceded short-term bounces (e.g., January/February 2025 recovery). However, RSI divergence is absent, and oversold conditions can persist in strong downtrends. Given the magnitude of the four-day decline, RSI suggests potential exhaustion but requires confirmation via price reversal above 84.33.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the 100.05 (2025-04-24 high) to 80.96 (2025-09-03 low) decline reveals immediate resistance zones: 85.47 (23.6%), 88.25 (38.2%), and 90.51 (50%). The current price (81.24) resides below all retracement levels, reflecting entrenched bearish control. A rally to reclaim 85.47—aligning with the lower Bollinger Band and 50-day MA—is critical for reversal potential. Failure to hold 80.96 may extend declines toward 78.60 (June/January 2025 support).
Confluence & Divergence
Confluence of bearish signals exists:
- Price below all MAs, MACD/K < 0, and RSI oversold synchronize with the Bollinger Band breach and high-volume sell-off.
- Critical support at 80.96 aligns with the 2025-09-03 low and psychologically significant 80.00.
No major divergences are observed; momentum and price trends align. However, KDJ oversold and RSI extremes hint at exhaustion, suggesting near-term consolidation is probable before continuation or reversal. Traders should monitor 80.96 support and 85.47 resistance for directional clues.