CNQ Surges 3.19% as Breakout Confirmed by Bullish Technical Indicators

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) closed the most recent session up 3.19%, with the price surging to $39.10. This move follows a period of consolidation and suggests a potential breakout from a key resistance level observed in early February. The candlestick pattern over the past two weeks exhibits a bullish engulfing formation, with long upper shadows indicating strong buying pressure. Key support levels appear to be forming around the $36.50–$37.00 range, coinciding with a prior consolidation zone, while resistance is now likely at $39.50–$40.00 as the recent high becomes a psychological barrier.

Candlestick Theory

The recent price action displays a strong bullish bias, with the candlesticks showing long upper wicks and narrow lower shadows over the past week. A notable pattern is the "hanging man" on February 2, which failed to hold, suggesting buyers regained control. The 2025–2026 period saw a series of higher lows and higher highs, reinforcing an uptrend. Key support levels at $36.50 (February 2 close) and $35.00 (January 21 low) remain critical for trend continuation, while resistance at $39.50 (February 6 high) and $41.00 (a Fibonacci extension level) could trigger short-term pullbacks.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (currently ~$34.50) has crossed above the 100-day (~$33.20) and 200-day (~$31.80) moving averages, signaling a bullish trend. The price is currently trading above all three, with the 50-day acting as dynamic support. The 200-day MA, a critical long-term trend indicator, is being tested for a potential crossover above the 100-day MA, which would confirm a strengthening trend. However, the 50-day MA is now diverging slightly from price momentum, suggesting a potential slowdown in the near term.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has expanded positively over the past week, with the MACD line (12-period) above the signal line (26-period), reinforcing bullish momentum. However, the KDJ indicator shows the stochastic %K line approaching overbought territory (above 80), with %D lagging behind, indicating a possible short-term reversal. A divergence between the KDJ and price action—where price makes a new high but the %K line fails to do so—may signal weakening momentum. This confluence of MACD strength and KDJ overbought conditions suggests caution for short-term traders.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded recently, with the upper Bollinger Band now at ~$40.30 and the lower band at ~$37.00. The price is currently near the upper band, a common scenario in strong trends. A break above the upper band would likely trigger further gains, while a retest of the lower band could confirm $37.00 as a key support level. The bands’ width suggests increased market participation, aligning with the high trading volumes observed in recent sessions.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume spiked to 6.22 million shares on February 6, validating the 3.19% price surge. However, volume has since moderated, which may indicate waning momentum. A key validation point is whether volume increases on further upside moves; declining volume would suggest a potential overextension. The recent volume surge aligns with the breakout pattern, but traders should monitor for volume contraction as a bearish signal.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-period RSI is currently at ~78, entering overbought territory. While this is not uncommon in strong trends, a failure to retreat below 70 could signal a continuation of the uptrend. A drop below 50 would likely trigger a corrective phase. The RSI has shown a slight divergence from price action over the past three days, with price making higher highs while RSI peaks lower, hinting at potential exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels from the January 2026 low ($31.00) to the February 2026 high ($39.10) include 23.6% at $36.60, 38.2% at $37.40, and 50% at $38.05. The current price of $39.10 has surpassed the 50% level, suggesting a potential test of the 61.8% retracement at $38.70 before a possible pullback. The confluence of the 50% Fibonacci level and the 50-day MA at $34.50 may act as a pivot point for trend continuation.

Confluence and Divergences

Multiple indicators align to suggest a strong uptrend: moving averages, MACD, and Bollinger Bands all confirm bullish momentum. However, the RSI overbought condition and KDJ divergence highlight risks of a short-term correction. The key confluence point is the $37.00–$37.50 range, where Fibonacci support, moving averages, and Bollinger Bands converge. A breakdown below this level could invalidate the uptrend, while a sustained move above $39.50 would target $41.00 as the next Fibonacci extension.