CNI Surges 5.12% on Strong Q3 Earnings and Strategic Moves: Is This the Start of a Bullish Rebound?

Summary
• Canadian National Railway (CNI) surges 5.12% to $98.08, breaking above its 52-week low of $91.07
• Q3 earnings report highlights $1.54/share beat, $1.27 intermodal forecast, and $1.1B grain plan
• Analysts upgrade CNI to 'Outperform' as cold chain expansion and executive changes boost confidence

Canadian National Railway’s (CNI) 5.12% intraday rally on October 31, 2025, reflects a confluence of earnings strength, strategic infrastructure investments, and sector-specific tailwinds. With a 52-week high of $114.13 still in reach, the stock’s surge from $97.05 to $99.55 underscores renewed institutional confidence. Recent upgrades from Raymond James and Evercore ISI, coupled with a $1.54/share Q3 EPS beat, position CNI as a key player in North American rail resilience.

Q3 Earnings and Strategic Expansion Drive CNI's Rally
CNI’s 5.12% intraday jump is fueled by its Q3 2025 earnings report, which revealed a $1.54/share result exceeding estimates and a $1.27/share intermodal forecast. The company’s $1.1B grain plan for 2025-2026 and a $170M Chicago logistics hub announcement signal long-term infrastructure bets. Analysts upgraded CNI to 'Outperform' following its 3.8% September rally and cold chain logistics partnership with Congebec. These moves, combined with a 17.30% analyst price target of $114.80, validate CNI’s strategic pivot toward high-margin intermodal and grain corridors.

Rail Sector Volatility as CSX Trails CNI's Gains
While CNI surged 5.12%, CSX, a key rail sector peer, posted a modest 0.21% intraday gain. The disparity reflects CNI’s focus on intermodal and grain logistics versus CSX’s coal-dependent model. Sector-wide, Union Pacific’s $85B merger with Norfolk Southern and BNSF’s rate hikes highlight consolidation and pricing pressures. CNI’s 17.30% upside to $114.80 contrasts with CSX’s 0.21% move, underscoring divergent earnings drivers.

Options Playbook: CNI20251121C100 and CNI20251121C105 for Bullish Exposure
• 200-day average: 99.17 (below current price) • RSI: 45.05 (oversold) • MACD: -0.204 (bearish) • Bollinger Bands: 93.31–97.63 (current price above upper band)

CNI’s technicals suggest a short-term rebound after hitting 52-week lows. Key levels to watch: 93.31 (lower Bollinger), 95.47 (middle Bollinger), and 99.17 (200D MA). A 5% upside to $103.00 could trigger momentum plays. The CNI20251121C100 and CNI20251121C105 options offer high leverage and liquidity for bullish bets.

• CNI20251121C100: Call option with 22.26% IV, 70.13% leverage, delta 0.384, theta -0.0685, gamma 0.0711, turnover 9,688. IV at mid-range, leverage >50%, and high gamma make this ideal for a 5% upside. Projected payoff: $3.00/share (ST=103.00).
• CNI20251121C105: Call option with 21.56% IV, 363.63% leverage, delta 0.109, theta -0.0287, gamma 0.0362, turnover 1,020. High leverage and moderate IV suit aggressive bulls. Projected payoff: $8.00/share (ST=103.00).

Aggressive bulls may consider CNI20251121C100 into a break above $100.00, while CNI20251121C105 offers 363.63% leverage for a 5% move. Both contracts benefit from CNI’s 17.30% analyst target and Q3 earnings momentum.

Backtest Canadian National Railway Stock Performance
Here is the completed back-test for Canadian National Railway (CNI) after every ≥ 5 % intraday surge since 2022. The interactive module below contains the full detail and visualisations.Key observations (not duplicated in the module):• Total return is negative (-11.8 %) with an annualised drift of -1.7 %. • Maximum draw-down approaches 31 %, while the Sharpe ratio is marginally negative. • The rule produced few winning trades, indicating that a raw “5 % intraday spike” is not a reliable standalone entry criterion for CNI during this period.Parameter notes:• Back-test period: 2022-01-01 – 2025-10-31 (filled from your “2022 to now” instruction). • Price used: daily close (default when unspecified). • Exit rule / risk control: none supplied, so positions remained open until the study end; this mirrors the default engine behaviour.Feel free to explore the interactive panel for deeper drill-downs, or let me know if you’d like alternative holding rules or additional filters applied.

CNI's Momentum: A Short-Term Bull Case with Caution
CNI’s 5.12% rally on Q3 earnings and strategic infrastructure bets signals a potential short-term rebound, but technicals remain mixed. The stock’s 17.30% upside to $114.80 and cold chain expansion justify bullish exposure, though the 200D MA at $99.17 and 52-week low of $91.07 remain critical support levels. Sector leader CSX’s 0.21% gain highlights CNI’s outperformance, but investors should monitor Union Pacific’s merger progress and intermodal demand. Watch for a break above $100.00 to confirm the trend.