CNH Industrial (CNH) Plunges 4.69% to 2025 Low as Trade Tensions, Weak Earnings Weigh

The share price of CNH Industrial (CNH) fell to its lowest level since April 2025 on August 29, 2025, with an intraday decline of 4.69%. The stock has now dropped 5.14% over two consecutive trading days, marking a significant correction amid persistent sector-specific and macroeconomic headwinds.

The agricultural machinery segment, a core revenue driver for CNH, faces deteriorating demand due to unresolved U.S.-China trade tensions. Uncertainty over China’s soybean purchases has depressed crop prices, prompting U.S. farmers to delay equipment upgrades and extend machinery usage. CEO Gerrit Marx highlighted this trend, noting the sector is in a "trough" phase reliant on trade resolution for recovery.

Analyst sentiment has shifted cautiously, with Goldman Sachs downgrading CNH from "Buy" to "Neutral" in July 2025. Earnings forecasts for Q3 2025 show a sharp decline, with projected EPS at $0.15—down from $0.24 in the prior year. Broader industry challenges, including tepid demand for farm equipment, further weigh on investor confidence.

Macroeconomic factors amplify the pressure. The USD/CNH exchange rate weakened to 7.1185 in late August, influenced by Fed rate cut expectations and China’s managed yuan depreciation. While a weaker dollar may lower operational costs in China, rising input prices for materials like steel could compress margins. Geopolitical risks, including tariffs and deteriorating credit conditions for U.S. farmers, add to the uncertainty.

Despite strategic investments in U.S. manufacturing and precision farming technologies, adoption remains constrained by farmers’ financial constraints. The sector’s recovery hinges on stabilizing global trade relations and improved crop demand, leaving CNH’s near-term outlook clouded by structural challenges.