CMB.TECH NV (CMBT): A Green Giant Emerges from the Seas of Change – Here’s Why This Merger Could Be a Maritime Masterstroke

The shipping industry is at a crossroads: aging fleets, tightening emissions regulations, and the race to decarbonize are reshaping the landscape. Enter CMB.TECH NV (CMBT), which has just taken a bold leap forward by merging with Golden Ocean Group, positioning itself as a leader in both traditional dry bulk dominance and the green revolution. This isn’t just a merger—it’s a strategic masterstroke that could redefine the sector. Let me break down why this deal is a buy signal for long-term investors.

The Merger’s Strategic Brilliance: Building a Maritime Empire

The April 2025 merger between CMB.TECH and Golden Ocean creates a $11 billion fleet powerhouse with over 250 vessels, including 87 modern Capesize and Newcastlemax dry bulk carriers. But the real value lies in the diversification:

• CMB.TECH’s Six-Pronged Fleet: From crude oil tankers (Euronav) to offshore wind support (Windcat), the company already spans multiple shipping niches.
• Golden Ocean’s Dry Bulk Muscle: Their 59 Capesize/Newcastlemax ships and 32 Kamsarmax/Panamax vessels add scale in a segment where low order books (under 8% of global fleet) and aging competitors (40% of global dry bulk fleet over 20 years old by 2030) promise tight supply-demand dynamics.

Combined, this merger solidifies CMBT’s position as the #1 global dry bulk player by fleet value and diversifies its revenue streams. The 70/30 ownership split post-merger ensures stability, with Golden Ocean shareholders getting a 30% stake—sweetening the pot for skeptics.

The Green Shift: Ammonia-Powered Dominance

The real game-changer here isn’t just size—it’s sustainability. CMB.TECH isn’t just adapting to the IMO’s carbon regulations; it’s leading them. By 2026, the combined fleet will include 9 ammonia-powered vessels, with over 25 more dual-fuel capable ships by 2030. Why does this matter?

1. Regulatory Tailwinds: The EU’s carbon pricing and IMO’s global carbon tax (MEPC-83) will penalize diesel-dependent ships, creating a premium for green operators.
2. Client Demand: Companies like Fortescue and MOL are already locking in contracts with CMB.TECH for ammonia-ready vessels—a $2.94 billion backlog (up $921M in Q1 2025 alone) proves demand is here.

This isn’t just about being "green"—it’s about future-proofing against rising compliance costs and securing long-term contracts with energy giants.

The Numbers Don’t Lie: Accretion and Backlog

Let’s get to brass tacks. The merger is financially robust:

• Valuation: The 0.95 exchange ratio values CMB.TECH at $15.23/share and Golden Ocean at $14.49/share—fair to both sides, as confirmed by DNB Markets’ fairness opinion.
• EBITDA Synergy: Combined 2024 EBITDA is projected at over $1 billion, backed by Golden Ocean’s $223M profit and CMB.TECH’s $500M EBITDA.
• Dividend Strength: With leverage at just 37% post-merger, the company can sustain its 45–62.5% payout ratio, rewarding shareholders handsomely.

Navigating Near-Term Headwinds: Tanker Markets Are Transitional

Critics will point to tanker market headwinds—overcapacity and slowing oil demand. But here’s the rub:

• Spot vs. Time Charter: Only 24 of CMB.TECH’s 40 tankers are exposed to spot rates. The rest are locked in long-term contracts, shielding them from volatility.
• Geopolitical Upside: Russian and Iranian sanctions could tighten oil tanker demand, while rising OPEC+ output and rebuilding global inventories add tailwinds.

This isn’t a bet on tanker dominance—it’s a balanced portfolio designed to thrive across cycles.

Why Now Is the Time to Set Sail with CMB.TECH

The merger’s third-quarter 2025 close timeline and Oslo listing (expanding investor access) are ticking boxes. Meanwhile, the $14.9/share pro forma NAV (per brokers) suggests the stock is undervalued today.

This isn’t just a merger—it’s a decade-defining move. CMB.TECH is becoming the go-to player for investors who want exposure to:
- Dry bulk’s supply crunch
- Ammonia’s green shipping revolution
- A diversified, low-leverage fleet with $2.94B in contracted revenue

Final Take: Full Speed Ahead

Skeptics focus on near-term tanker headwinds or regulatory hurdles, but they’re missing the forest for the trees. CMB.TECH’s merger with Golden Ocean creates a superpower in a sector ripe for consolidation. Add in their ammonia-first strategy and you’ve got a company poised to dominate the $400 billion maritime market’s next chapter.

Action Item: Buy CMB.TECH (CMBT) now—this is a once-in-a-decade opportunity to own a leader in the green shipping revolution. The seas are changing, and this is the ship you want to be on.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Always consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.