CMB.TECH: Capturing the Winds of Change in a Transitioning Maritime Sector

The maritime industry is at a crossroads. Regulatory pressures, decarbonization mandates, and fleet rationalization are reshaping the sector, creating both risks and opportunities for forward-thinking players. Among them, CMB.TECH stands out as a strategic juggernaut, leveraging its fleet modernization, green energy partnerships, and the pending merger with Golden Ocean to position itself as a dominant force in the dry bulk shipping market. With imminent catalysts on the horizon, this could be the moment to secure a stake in a company poised to thrive in the transition to sustainable shipping.

Fleet Modernization: Selling Old, Buying Green

CMB.TECH’s recent sales of three aging Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) for a $96.7 million capital gain highlight its disciplined approach to fleet rejuvenation. By divesting older, less efficient vessels, the company is reallocating capital toward newer, eco-friendly ships. A prime example is the April 2025 delivery of the Mineral Sverige, a 210,000 dwt ammonia-ready bulk carrier built by China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC). This vessel reduces NOx emissions by 75% compared to conventional ships, aligning with International Maritime Organization (IMO) Tier III standards.

The fleet strategy goes beyond carbon reduction: it’s about future-proofing. By 2025, CMB.TECH will have delivered over 30 vessels—including five VLCCs and 28 bulk carriers—designed for green fuels like ammonia. This shift not only meets regulatory demands but also secures long-term contracts with environmentally conscious clients.

Green Energy Partnerships: The Hydrogen and Ammonia Play

CMB.TECH isn’t just building green ships—it’s partnering to create the infrastructure needed to fuel them. Its collaboration with WinGD on ammonia-fueled two-stroke engines for bulk carriers marks a breakthrough in propulsion technology. The first such vessel, a 210,000 dwt Capesize bulker, is set for delivery in 2026, with nine more vessels in the pipeline under joint ventures with Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL).

Meanwhile, the Antwerp-based hydrogen fueling station—developed with firms like Cummins and Ekinetix—is a critical step toward decarbonizing land and sea transport. This facility supplies hydrogen to ships, trucks, and buses, demonstrating CMB.TECH’s holistic approach to energy transition.

The partnership with Fortescue Metals Group for an ammonia-powered Newcastlemax bulk carrier (due late 2025) underscores the scalability of these efforts. By 2030, green ammonia could supply 10–20% of maritime fuel demand, per the International Energy Agency—a market CMB.TECH is already dominating.

The Golden Ocean Merger: Building a Dry Bulk Titan

The stock-for-stock merger with Golden Ocean, set to close by Q3 2025, creates a combined fleet of over 250 vessels, positioning CMB.TECH as a leader in diversified maritime logistics. Key benefits include:
- Scale: A 30% increase in dry bulk capacity, enhancing pricing power.
- Liquidity: Golden Ocean shareholders will gain access to CMB.TECH’s NYSE listing, while the combined entity pursues a secondary listing in Oslo.
- Cost synergies: Streamlined operations and shared green fuel initiatives.

Crucially, CMB.TECH’s 49.4% stake in Golden Ocean as of April 2025 provides a strong foundation for shareholder approval. The merger’s success hinges on regulatory blessings—particularly SEC filings for the Form F-4 registration—and the Transaction Committee’s reaffirmed fairness opinion.

Near-Term Risks: Navigating Headwinds

While the strategic vision is clear, risks remain:
1. Merger execution: Regulatory delays or shareholder dissent could push completion beyond Q3 2025, risking valuation contraction.
2. Tanker market volatility: Weak crude demand and oversupply in the tanker segment may pressure CMB.TECH’s VLCC fleet in the short term.
3. Ammonia infrastructure gaps: Green ammonia supply chains are nascent; reliance on imports from Australia, Chile, and Saudi Arabia poses geopolitical and logistical risks.

Why Invest Now? Catalysts and Valuation

The bull case hinges on imminent catalysts:
- Q3 2025 merger completion: A "done deal" would unlock synergies and catalyze multiple expansion.
- 2026 ammonia vessel deliveries: First-in-class ships will generate premium charter rates and attract ESG-conscious clients.

Valuation-wise, CMB.TECH trades at a 20% discount to its 5-year average EV/EBITDA despite its leadership in green shipping. With $2.5 billion in combined fleet value post-merger and a $11 billion market cap, the stock appears undervalued relative to its long-term growth trajectory.

Conclusion: The Winds Are Favorable

CMB.TECH is not just surviving the maritime transition—it’s leading it. The Golden Ocean merger, green energy partnerships, and fleet modernization form a trifecta of strategic advantages. While risks exist, the near-term catalysts and undervalued stock price make this a compelling buy for investors willing to look beyond short-term volatility.

The question isn’t whether the maritime sector will decarbonize—it’s who will profit most. CMB.TECH is steering into the wind.