Cleveland-Cliffs Q3 2025 Earnings Transcript: Strong Auto Steel Demand and Favorable Pricing Agreements

Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Q3 2025 earnings show a significant rebound in domestic steel demand, led by the automotive sector. The company achieved its best auto steel shipment quarter since Q1 2024, and secured multi-year agreements with major OEMs for higher sales volumes and favorable pricing through 2027 or 2028. The Section 232 tariffs on steel and autos are expected to remain in place, making domestic manufacturing the only effective way to avoid tariffs.

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE: CLF) reported its third-quarter (Q3) 2025 earnings, showcasing a significant rebound in domestic steel demand, particularly in the automotive sector. The company's stock surged nearly 20% on October 20, 2025, after the announcement of its Q3 earnings and strategic initiatives. This rally brought CLF to a 42% gain year-to-date, outpacing the broader market and most peers [1].

Q3 Highlights

- Revenue: Q3 2025 sales rose 3.6% year-over-year to $4.73 billion, just shy of analysts’ estimates of ~$4.9 billion [4].
- Shipments: Steel shipments hit 4.0 million tons, up from 3.8 million tons a year ago [5].
- Net Loss: The company reported a net loss of roughly -$0.45 per share (~$230 million), essentially flat versus a year ago and in line with forecasts [6].

Tariffs Drive Demand Recovery

The company credited new 50% tariffs on imported steel, implemented by the Trump administration in early 2025, for reviving domestic demand. CEO Lourenco Goncalves noted that the “new trade environment” has allowed Cleveland-Cliffs to win multi-year supply contracts with all major U.S. automakers [9]. With foreign steel effectively priced out, Cliffs’ U.S.-made automotive steel saw a “demand recovery” that bolstered Q3 sales [10].

Strategic Pivot to Rare-Earth Mining

In a surprise move, Cleveland-Cliffs unveiled plans to explore for rare-earth elements (REEs) at two of its iron ore mining sites (in Michigan and Minnesota) [12]. Geological surveys show “key indicators of rare-earth mineralization” at those locations [13]. Management framed this move as both an opportunity and a patriotic duty, aligning with U.S. efforts to reduce reliance on China for critical materials [14].

Investor Sentiment and Analyst Views

Despite the stock’s surge, Wall Street remains cautious. The consensus rating is roughly Hold/Moderate Buy with an average 12-month price target around $11–12 – ~25% below the current price [16]. Several analysts have inched up targets but warn of risks, including falling steel prices, demand slowdown, and high debt levels [18, 19].

Outlook

Cleveland-Cliffs is poised to benefit from the Section 232 tariffs on steel and autos, which are expected to remain in place. The company secured multi-year agreements with major OEMs for higher sales volumes and favorable pricing through 2027 or 2028. While the rare-earth mining initiative is promising, tangible results are uncertain and could be years away [49, 50].

References

Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Skyrockets on Tariff Boom & Rare-Earth Pivot – Price Surges, Key Facts & Forecasts^[1] https://ts2.tech/en/cleveland-cliffs-stock-skyrockets-on-tariff-boom-rare-earth-pivot-price-surges-key-facts-forecasts/
https://ts2.tech/en/cleveland-cliffs-stock-skyrockets-on-tariff-boom-rare-earth-pivot-price-surges-key-facts-forecasts/
https://ts2.tech/en/cleveland-cliffs-stock-skyrockets-on-tariff-boom-rare-earth-pivot-price-surges-key-facts-forecasts/
https://ts2.tech/en/cleveland-cliffs-stock-skyrockets-on-tariff-boom-rare-earth-pivot-price-surges-key-facts-forecasts/
https://ts2.tech/en/cleveland-cliffs-stock-skyrockets-on-tariff-boom-rare-earth-pivot-price-surges-key-facts-forecasts/
https://ts2.tech/en/cleveland-cliffs-stock-skyrockets-on-tariff-boom-rare-earth-pivot-price-surges-key-facts-forecasts/
https://ts2.tech/en/cleveland-cliffs-stock-skyrockets-on-tariff-boom-rare-earth-pivot-price-surges-key-facts-forecasts/
https://ts2.tech/en/cleveland-cliffs-stock-skyrockets-on-tariff-boom-rare-earth-pivot-price-surges-key-facts-forecasts/
https://ts2.tech/en/cleveland-cliffs-stock-skyrockets-on-tariff-boom-rare-earth-pivot-price-surges-key-facts-forecasts/
https://ts2.tech/en/cleveland-cliffs-stock-skyrockets-on-tariff-boom-rare-earth-pivot-price-surges-key-facts-forecasts/
https://ts2.tech/en/cleveland-cliffs-stock-skyrockets-on-tariff-boom-rare-earth-pivot-price-surges-key-facts-forecasts/
https://ts2.tech/en/cleveland-cliffs-stock-skyrockets-on-tariff-boom-rare-earth-pivot-price-surges-key-facts-forecasts/
https://ts2.tech/en/cleveland-cliffs-stock-skyrockets-on-tariff-boom-rare-earth-pivot-price-surges-key-facts-forecasts/
https://ts2.tech/en/cleveland-cliffs-stock-skyrockets-on-tariff-boom-rare-earth-pivot-price-surges-key-facts-forecasts/