Cleveland-Cliffs Outlook: Mixed Signals Amid Volatile Market Conditions

Market Snapshot

Outlook: Caution is advised — Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF.N) is showing weak technical signals and a recent price decline of 13.19%, while fund flows remain positive. Internal diagnostic scores highlight a mixed but cautiously bearish technical picture.

News Highlights

• Trump doubles US steel and aluminum tariffs — Effective 2025-05-31, tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will increase from 25% to 50%. This move is likely to benefit domestic steel producers like Cleveland-Cliffs, though it raises concerns about international trade tensions.
• Positive industry financing activity — Several junior mining and metals companies (e.g., Galway Metals, CopAur Minerals) announced oversubscribed financing rounds in late May 2025. While not directly involving Cleveland-Cliffs, this reflects industry confidence that could indirectly support broader demand for steel and metals.
• EU expresses strong regret over US tariff decision — The EU's public response signals potential diplomatic and trade complications, which could impact global trade flows and metal prices over the medium term.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Cleveland-Cliffs is currently rated with a simple average rating of 5.00 and a performance-weighted rating of 2.01, indicating strong dispersion among analysts and a mismatch with recent negative price trends.

Key Fundamental Values & Scores

• Revenue-MV (score: 2.00) — Revenue-to-market value is low at 0.0812.
• Days sales outstanding (score: 3.00) — At 31.85 days, collections remain fairly efficient.
• Profit-MV (score: 2.00) — Profit-to-market value is 0.4851.
• Net income-Revenue (score: 2.00) — Net margin is -13.32%, indicating poor profitability.
• Cash-UP (score: 2.00) — Cash flow is 0.4459.
• ROE (diluted) (score: 0.00) — At -22.59%, it's a significant drag on performance.
• Total assets turnover ratio (score: 3.00) — At 0.6934, asset usage is moderate.
• Asset-MV (score: 1.00) — Asset-to-market value is -0.5188, indicating overvaluation.
• Cash-MV (score: 2.00) — Cash-to-market value is 0.4217.

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money and retail flows remain aligned in a positive overall trend. All investor categories (small, medium, large, extra-large) show inflow ratios above 0.50, with the highest at 0.5094 (extra-large). The fund flow score is 8.0 (good), indicating strong inflows and growing investor interest in the stock despite recent price weakness.

Key Technical Signals

Technical indicators for Cleveland-Cliffs remain weak, with 2 bearish and 0 bullish signals over the last 5 days. An internal diagnostic score of 4.42 indicates caution is warranted.

Top Indicators & Scores

• MACD Death Cross (score: 3.33) — Neutral bias, with a historical win rate of 42.86% and average return of 1.26%.
• Bullish Engulfing (score: 3.26) — Neutral rise, with a win rate of 50.0% and average return of -0.95%.
• Marubozu White (score: 6.67) — Strong bullish, though this signal occurred earlier in December 2025 and may now be outdated.

Recent Chart Patterns by Date

• 2025-12-19: Bullish Engulfing
• 2026-01-02: Hanging Man
• 2025-12-23: Marubozu White
• 2025-12-31: MACD Death Cross
• 2025-12-16: Bullish Engulfing

Key technical insight: The recent signals are scarce and the market is calm. Bearish indicators are dominant (2 bearish vs. 0 bullish), and the overall trend remains weak. Investors should remain cautious until clearer momentum emerges.

Conclusion

With a fund flow score of 8.0 and fundamental and technical scores below 5.0, Cleveland-Cliffs is in a period of transition. While industry news and tariff policies may offer support, the stock’s mixed fundamentals and weak technical signals suggest it is not yet a clear buy. Investors are advised to consider waiting for a pull-back or clearer momentum before taking positions.