Clean Energy Fuels’ EBITDA Guidance, RNG Profitability Shifts, and 45Z Credit Doubts Expose 2026 Contradictions

Date of Call: Aug 6, 2026

Financials Results

• Revenue: $106.4M, up from $102.6M in the prior year period

Guidance:

• Full year guidance is being maintained and assumes improved financial performance in the second half of 2026.
• Fuel pricing (including RIN and LCFS credit values) has been favorable, operating expenses are on plan, and fuel volumes are meeting expectations.
• The final guidance on the GREET model for the 45Z production tax credit is expected before year-end and could provide up to $5M of incremental adjusted EBITDA.
• If guidance is delayed or provides minimal benefit, adjusted EBITDA would be below the $70-75M range.

Business Commentary:

Revenue and Financial Performance:

• Clean Energy Fuels reported $106 million in revenue for Q2 2026, with $63 million of R&G sold and $16 million of adjusted EBITDA.
• The results were in line with expectations and maintained the company's annual financial outlook.
• Revenue was supported by improved weather conditions and ramp-up at key RNG projects, as well as increased fuel volumes.

RNG Production and Improvement:

• RNG production volume from dairy projects reached 2.1 million gallons for Q2 2026, well above the prior year period.
• The improvement in the RNG Upstream business was due to better operational performance and favorable credit values.
• The company expects continued improvement in the second half of the year.

Fuel Volumes and Market Dynamics:

• Fuel volumes increased by 7% year-over-year to 81.8 million gallons, with a significant contribution from conventional natural gas.
• The growth was driven by additional fueling locations for large fleet customers and favorable fuel pricing.
• The company anticipates stable fuel volumes and continued interest in RNG, especially with high diesel prices.

Strategic Expansion and New Opportunities:

• Clean Energy Fuels secured a $27 million contract with Orange County Transportation Authority for a hydrogen fueling station, showcasing its leadership in alternative fuel infrastructure.
• The company is exploring opportunities in power generation and energy solutions, leveraging its existing compression and transportation assets.
• These strategic moves are aimed at capitalizing on emerging market demands for reliable and cleaner energy solutions.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• "Today, we reported solid results for the second quarter... These results were in line with our expectations and keep us on track for our annual financial outlook, which we are maintaining." "Overall, our second quarter performance was in line with our expectations from both the financial performance and fuel volume standpoint." "We are optimistic." "We see a lot of opportunity for those to improve." "We are excited about it."

Q&A:

• Question from Eric Stein (Craig Hallam): Could you talk about the incremental cost of the X15N and if it has normalized?
  Response: The incremental cost of the X15N is still expected to decrease as diesel prices remain high, but there is uncertainty due to delayed 2027 engine certification. The company is working with partners to reduce the price and highlights the fuel cost savings from high diesel prices as a key advantage.

• Question from Eric Stein (Craig Hallam): Can you explain the $5M incremental EBITDA from the 45Z guidance and the downside risk?
  Response: The $5M is factored into the full-year guidance, assuming the final 45Z/GREET model guidance improves tax credit values and is issued before year-end. A delay or minimal benefit could push adjusted EBITDA below the $70-75M range.

• Question from Rob Brown (Lake Street Capital Markets): Given higher diesel prices, what is your view on fleet adoption shifting to natural gas?
  Response: Optimistic but sees uncertainty due to regulatory environment; fleets are testing and gaining experience with the X15N. Increased advertising has generated interest and appointments.

• Question from Rob Brown (Lake Street Capital Markets): How is the RNG upstream EBITDA trend and how much more maturity is ahead?
  Response: EBITDA is improving, with strong volume growth. The trend is positive, expected to be much better in the second half, with new projects coming online later this year and early next year.

• Question from Nate Pendleton (Texas Capital): How large is the pipeline for power generation opportunities and what investment is needed?
  Response: The pipeline is enabled by existing assets (trailers, compression capacity) without requiring significant new investment. It involves small, incremental opportunities justified by contracts, with growth potential.

• Question from Nate Pendleton (Texas Capital): Can you discuss the size and cadence of hydrogen opportunities following the OCTA announcement?
  Response: The model uses third-party capital (like transit agency RFPs) and cost-plus contracts; the company acts as a service provider without taking commodity or capital risk, focusing on operational and maintenance agreements.

• Question from Matthew Blair (TPH): Where do you stand on California LCFS pathways and when might you receive them?
  Response: The Del Rio project has a provisional pathway; others have temporary pathways. Expect provisional pathways for the BP joint venture projects early next year, and for the Idaho projects around 2028, but no firm dates are in the forecast.

• Question from Matthew Blair (TPH): Your guidance implies H2 fuel distribution may be lower than H1. Is that typical or are there other moving parts?
  Response: No, H2 distribution is expected to be relatively consistent or improve; the initial math was based on a misunderstanding.

Contradiction Point 1

Financial Forecast Certainty for 2026 Adjusted EBITDA

Contradiction on whether the $70-$75M EBITDA guidance is definitive or conditional on credit changes.

Eric Stein (Craig Hallam) - Eric Stein (Craig Hallam)

2026Q2: The current guidance already includes an expectation of a positive credit value change. - [Bob](CFO)

Does the $5 million incremental from the 45Z credit imply an upside to current EBITDA guidance, and could delays or minimal benefits from the credit result in downside risk to the EBITDA range? - Eric Stine (Craig-Hallum)

2026Q1: The comment on lower margins refers to the full year outlook... Factors impacting margins were anticipated. - [Bob](CFO)

Contradiction Point 2

RNG Upstream Business EBITDA Outlook

Guidance for upstream RNG business profitability appears to have shifted significantly.

Rob Brown (Lake Street Capital Markets) - Rob Brown (Lake Street Capital Markets)

2026Q2: RNG upstream performance is improving: ... Operational improvements and scaling will drive better margins in the second half of 2026. - [Clay Corbis](CEO)

What is the trend line for the RNG upstream business's EBITDA, and how much more improvement is expected following its near break-even in Q2? - Robert Brown (Lake Street Capital Markets)

20260225-2025 Q4: Adjusted EBITDA for the RNG upstream business is expected to range from $3 million to $5 million, ramping over the four quarters. - [Robert Vreeland](EVP) and [Andrew Littlefair](EVP)

Contradiction Point 3

45Z Credit Impact on 2026 EBITDA Guidance

Contradiction on whether the $5M EBITDA benefit is included in current guidance.

Eric Stein (Craig Hallam) - Eric Stein (Craig Hallam)

2026Q2: The $70–$75 million adjusted EBITDA guidance... provides up to an additional $5 million. - [Bob](CFO)

Does the $5 million incremental from the 45Z credit represent an increase above current EBITDA guidance, and if the credit is delayed, does that imply a downside to the current EBITDA range? - Eric Stine (Craig-Hallum)

2026Q2: The $5 million EBITDA figure represents the potential upside... a delay (e.g., moving approval to 2027) would mean no benefit for 2026. - [Rob](CFO)

Contradiction Point 4

Timeline for California LCFS Pathways for New Projects

Contradiction on when provisional pathways are expected for joint venture projects.

What were Matthew Blair's comments on TPH's performance during the earnings call? - Matthew Blair (TPH)

2026Q2: The company expects the five projects in the Moss Energy Works joint venture with BP to receive provisional pathways in early 2027. - [Bob](CFO)

Could you provide an update on the current status of California LCFS pathways for your projects as well as the timeline for future pathways? - Matthew Blair (TPH)

2026Q2: The expected timeline for moving to provisional status is next year for the BP joint venture projects... - [Clay Corbus](CEO)

Contradiction Point 5

Fuel Distribution Volume Outlook for 2026

Contradiction on whether second-half volumes are expected to be lower or consistent.

"What were TPH's key earnings results for the quarter?" - Matthew Blair (TPH)

2026Q2: The expectation is for relatively consistent fuel volumes in H2 2026, not lower. - [Bob](CFO)

Does your guidance for lower H2 2026 fuel distribution volumes compared to H1 reflect typical seasonality or another factor? - Matthew Blair (TPH)

2026Q1: Q2 is not necessarily softer; the comment refers to expecting less volatility and strength compared to Q1. - [Bob](CFO)