Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE): Institutional Investor Confidence and RNG Sector Recovery Potential

The renewable energy sector has long been a battleground for visionary investors and policymakers, but few stories encapsulate the tension between short-term volatility and long-term potential as vividly as Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (NASDAQ: CLNE). As the renewable natural gas (RNG) market accelerates toward a projected $50 billion valuation by 2033Renewable Natural Gas Growth Projections: Trends to Watch^[1], CLNE's institutional ownership trends and operational progress offer critical insights into its recovery trajectory.

Institutional Investor Positioning: A Mixed Signal

Institutional investors have shown a nuanced stance toward CLNE in recent quarters. As of Q2 2025, Vanguard Group Inc., Dimensional Fund Advisors LP, and Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co. LLC collectively held over $74 million in CLNE sharesClean Energy Fuels (CLNE) Institutional Ownership 2025^[2]. BlackRock, Inc., the largest institutional holder, maintained a stake of 17.1 million sharesCLNE Clean Energy Fuels Institutional Ownership History and 13F …^[3], reflecting a strategic bet on the company's RNG-focused transformation. Over the past 24 months, institutional buying activity totaled 17.66 million shares ($37.57 million) versus 14.43 million shares sold ($30.45 million)Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE) Institutional Ownership 2025^[2], suggesting a net inflow of capital amid sector-wide optimism.

However, CLNE's stock price has declined 3.2% year-to-date, trading at $2.43 as of September 2025Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE) Stock Price, News^[4], despite a positive earnings surprise in Q1 2025. This disconnect highlights the challenges of balancing near-term operational risks—such as the potential non-renewal of the Pilot Travel Centers contract—with the broader appeal of RNG's decarbonization narrative.

RNG Sector Tailwinds: Policy and Market Dynamics

The RNG sector's growth is being propelled by a confluence of policy and technological advancements. According to a report by DataInsightsMarket, the global RNG market is expected to expand at a 45.6% CAGR from 2024 to 2033, reaching $216.51 billion by 2033Renewable Natural Gas Market Size & Analysis, 2025-2033^[5]. North America, which accounts for 40% of the global market, is leading this charge, driven by state-level mandates and the adoption of RNG in transportation. For instance, 25% of U.S. public transit agencies now blend RNG into their fuel mixRenewable Natural Gas Market Size & Analysis, 2025-2033^[5], a trend CLNE is well-positioned to capitalize on through its partnerships with transit fleets like LA Metro and Trinity MetroClean Energy Reports Revenue of $102.6 Million and 61.4 Million RNG Gallons Sold for the Second Quarter of 2025^[6].

Government incentives further amplify the sector's appeal. The 45Z tax credit, recently strengthened in U.S. legislation, provides a $1.25 per gallon credit for RNG productionClean Energy Reports Revenue of $102.6 Million and 61.4 Million RNG Gallons Sold for the Second Quarter of 2025^[6], directly benefiting CLNE's dairy RNG projects. Additionally, carbon credit programs and state-level renewable fuel standards are creating a regulatory tailwind that could solidify RNG's role in corporate sustainability goals.

CLNE's Operational Progress and Risks

Clean Energy Fuels has made tangible strides in scaling its RNG operations. In Q2 2025, the company reported $102.6 million in revenue and sold 61.4 million RNG gallons—a 7.5% year-over-year increaseClean Energy Reports Revenue of $102.6 Million and 61.4 Million RNG Gallons Sold for the Second Quarter of 2025^[6]. Its joint venture with BP yielded $29.5 million in investment tax credit salesClean Energy Reports Revenue of $102.6 Million and 61.4 Million RNG Gallons Sold for the Second Quarter of 2025^[6], while six dairy RNG projects are now operational, with expansions in Texas and Idaho nearing completionClean Energy Reports Revenue of $102.6 Million and 61.4 Million RNG Gallons Sold for the Second Quarter of 2025^[6]. These developments align with the sector's projected 35% capacity growth since 2023North America's RNG Market Set for Continued Growth in 2025 After Historic Year^[7].

Yet, CLNE's path to profitability remains fraught with risks. A dairy farm partner's bankruptcy in the East Valley RNG project and the potential loss of the Pilot Travel Centers contract could trigger up to $55 million in accelerated depreciationClean Energy Fuels (CLNE) Stock Price, News^[4]. Furthermore, Q1 2025 RNG sales dipped 12.8% year-over-year due to cold weather disruptionsClean Energy Fuels (CLNE) Stock Price, News^[4], underscoring the sector's vulnerability to external shocks.

Investment Implications: Balancing Optimism and Caution

For investors, CLNE represents a high-conviction play on the RNG sector's long-term potential, but one that requires careful risk management. The company's institutional ownership trends and strategic partnerships suggest confidence in its RNG-centric model, particularly as the sector benefits from policy-driven demand. However, CLNE's financials—marked by a $83 million net loss in 2024Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE) Stock Price, News^[4] and a MarketRank™ score of 41 out of 194 in the utilities sectorClean Energy Fuels (CLNE) Stock Price, News^[4]—highlight the need for continued operational execution.

Conclusion

Clean Energy Fuels Corp. stands at a crossroads. While institutional investors and sector dynamics signal optimism about RNG's future, CLNE's ability to navigate operational headwinds and regulatory uncertainties will determine its success. For those willing to tolerate short-term volatility, the company's alignment with a $216 billion global RNG marketRenewable Natural Gas Market Size & Analysis, 2025-2033^[5] and its expanding footprint in high-margin RNG production could offer compelling long-term rewards.