CLARITY Act 55% Chance to Pass in 2024 Aims to Standardize Crypto Regulations

The CLARITY Act, a U.S. legislative proposal aimed at clarifying the legal and regulatory framework for digital assets, is predicted to have a 55% chance of becoming law in 2024 according to market odds on Polymarket [2]. The bill, formally known as Crypto-Linked Asset Reporting and Transparency Improvement for You, seeks to establish clearer legal definitions for digital assets, particularly in relation to stablecoins, securities classifications, and custody frameworks [1]. Its progress reflects a growing consensus among lawmakers and the crypto community that the current regulatory environment is fragmented and in need of standardization.

The potential passage of the CLARITY Act could mark a significant turning point for the U.S. crypto industry. The bill reportedly includes provisions for stablecoin regulation under federal frameworks, clear definitions distinguishing digital asset securities from commodities, and guidance for banks and institutions on handling crypto custody [1]. These measures aim to resolve longstanding disputes between regulatory bodies like the SEC and CFTC over jurisdiction and to create a more predictable legal environment for market participants.

The increasing confidence in the bill’s prospects is attributed to bipartisan interest in crypto legislation, especially in the wake of major industry collapses such as FTX and Celsius. These events have heightened awareness of the risks and regulatory gaps in the sector, prompting a stronger push for legislative clarity [1]. Market sentiment has shifted in favor of the CLARITY Act, with many participants on Polymarket now viewing it as a realistic possibility before the end of the year [2].

However, the bill still faces political challenges, and the 55% probability should be seen as a forecast rather than a certainty. The final outcome will depend on a range of factors, including lobbying efforts, shifts in legislative priorities, and evolving public attitudes toward crypto. If passed, the act could provide a regulatory foundation that encourages institutional adoption and fosters innovation, but its failure this year would not necessarily halt the broader movement toward clearer crypto regulations in the U.S.

The CLARITY Act is distinct from earlier legislation like the GENIUS Act, which was signed into law in early 2025 [3]. While the GENIUS Act laid some groundwork, the CLARITY Act is more focused on addressing the gaps in regulatory clarity that have long hindered the development of the digital asset space. Despite the optimism, stakeholders are advised to remain cautious and prepare for multiple possible outcomes as the bill moves through Congress in the coming months [2].

Source:

[1] CLARITY Act Gains Momentum Among Crypto Watchers (https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/688b1a4032fd41286026ccfd/)

[2] Big Back Bitcoin (@BigBackBitcoin) / X (https://x.com/bigbackbitcoin)

[3] Perspective - All News And Posts By Crowdfund Insider, Crowdfund (https://www.crowdfundinsider.com/tag/perspective/)