Clairvest's Q4 Surge: A Beacon of Resilience in Private Equity's Storm

The private equity space has been a battleground in 2025, with rising interest rates and economic uncertainty testing even the sharpest investors. But Clairvest Group (TSX: CVG) just delivered a Q4 performance that screams “I've got this.” Let's dissect the numbers, the strategy, and why this could be a once-in-a-decade buying opportunity for contrarians.

The Numbers: Book Value Soars, Proving “Buy and Hold” Works

Clairvest's book value hit $88.30 per share as of March 31, 2025, up 1.8% from December 2024 and a staggering 10% year-over-year (YoY) from $80.16 in March 2024. This isn't just a blip—it's part of a three-year upward trajectory fueled by disciplined exits and strategic reinvestment.

While the S&P/TSX Composite Index stumbled in Q4, Clairvest's portfolio of private equity and infrastructure assets thrived. The key driver? Asset valuations rising in sectors like waste management and gaming, where their stakes in companies like Winters Bros. and Chilean Gaming Holdings delivered 7.5x and 2.5x returns, respectively.

The Strategy: Cutting Losers, Building Winners

Clairvest isn't just sitting on its laurels. CEO Ken Rotman's mantra—“clean up the portfolio”—is paying off. In Q4, they:
1. Exited underperformers: Sold off Durante Rentals (0.7x return) and FSB Technology (written down in 2023), freeing capital for better bets.
2. Pivoted to high-growth sectors: Invested $10.5M in Redstone Food Group, a commercial bakery with a scalable in-store model, and Beneficial Reuse Management, a sustainable waste solutions firm.
3. Ramped up share repurchases: Canceling 404,020 shares in Q2 2025 alone, boosting book value by $0.37/share—a move that rewards long-term holders.

This isn't just portfolio management; it's capital allocation mastery. By focusing on sectors with inflation-resistant demand (waste, gaming, food), Clairvest is building a moat against economic headwinds.

The Macro Play: Infrastructure and Private Equity's Golden Age

The world's infrastructure deficit is a $15 trillion problem, and governments are scrambling to fix it. Clairvest's focus on waste management and logistics isn't a coincidence—it's a front-row seat to a global trend.

Meanwhile, private equity's reputation has taken a hit in 2025 as some firms over-leveraged. But Clairvest's third-party capital model (CEP VII raised $1.2B, 83% from external investors) shows they're not just playing their own game—they're winning with other people's money. That's credibility.

The Risk? Market Myopia

Clairvest's stock has underperformed its book value in recent months, trading at a 10% discount as investors focus on short-term volatility. But this is a valuation trap. When a company with:
- 10%+ annual book value growth
- Top-quartile IRRs (24% on Winters Bros., 17% on Chilean Gaming)
- $4.6B under management with 14 platform investments in CEP VII alone

…trades at a discount, it's time to buy the dip.

Action Alert: This Is a Buy Below $90

The Q4 results are a catalyst, not a climax. With CEP VII's $1.2B war chest still deploying capital and infrastructure spending set to boom, Clairvest's 2026 results could be explosive.

Buy now if:
- You're in for the 5+ year horizon.
- You believe in private equity's resilience.
- You're ready to ignore the noise and focus on the book value trendline.

Avoid if:
- You need quick profits (this is a marathon).
- You're allergic to volatility (CVG's swings can be wild).

Final Word

Clairvest isn't a get-rich-quick stock. It's a “set-it-and-forget-it” compounder for investors who trust in asset valuations, not Wall Street's whims. With the Q4 results showing continued progress in portfolio cleanup and strategic reinvestment, this is a name to own for the next decade.

The next earnings call on August 6, 2025, will test this thesis—mark your calendar.

Disclosure: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always do your own research before investing.