First Citizens Bancshares Drops 2.80% As Bearish Technicals Signal Downside Risk

First Citizens Bancshares (FCNCA) declined 2.80% in the latest session, closing at $1871.35 after trading between $1870.76 and $1936.42 on below-average volume of 118,531 shares. This recent pullback follows a four-day advance, suggesting potential exhaustion of the near-term uptrend.
Candlestick Theory
The August 15 session formed a bearish marubozu candle, closing near its low after failing to sustain gains above $1900. This indicates strong selling pressure. Key resistance emerges at $1936 (recent high) and $1967 (early August peak), while critical support rests at $1870 (current swing low). A breach below $1870 could trigger further declines toward $1828 (July low). The $1900–$1936 zone now acts as a supply area confirmed by multiple rejections.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average ($1925) crossed below the 100-day MA ($1950) in late July, confirming a bearish intermediate trend. Current price ($1871) trades below all three key moving averages (50/100/200-day), signaling sustained downward pressure. The 200-day MA ($1958) remains flat, suggesting unresolved long-term directionality. A sustained break above the 50-day MA is needed to shift near-term bias.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows a bearish crossover below its signal line with the histogram in negative territory, signaling accelerating downward momentum. KDJ’s K-line (34) and D-line (42) are declining from neutral levels but remain above oversold thresholds. While KDJ hasn’t reached oversold extremes (<20), its downtrend aligns with MACD’s bearish bias. No divergence is observed, suggesting consistent downward pressure.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands are expanding after the late-July contraction, reflecting rising volatility. Price currently tests the lower band ($1870), which could provide temporary support. However, consecutive closes below the lower band may signal an oversold bounce is imminent. The midline ($1940) now serves as dynamic resistance. The bandwidth expansion favors directional continuation.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume declined 15% during the August 15 sell-off compared to the preceding rally days, suggesting limited conviction behind the downturn. Significant distribution occurred near the $1960–$2000 resistance zone in early August, evidenced by elevated volume (286k shares on August 8). Current lack of volume confirmation on the breakdown tempers bearish urgency but requires monitoring.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Daily RSI (14-period) reads 43, declining from neutral levels but not yet oversold. This positions the indicator midway between oversold (<30) and overbought (>70) thresholds, offering limited standalone signals. The absence of bullish divergence during recent lows warrants caution, as RSI hasn’t flashed contrarian warnings despite the price decline.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing high of $2272 (November 2024) and low of $1561 (April 2025), key retracement levels are: 23.6% ($1877), 38.2% ($1938), and 50% ($1990). Price rejected the 38.2% level in August, reinforcing $1938 as resistance. The August 15 close below the 23.6% level ($1877) is bearish; sustained trading under this threshold could expose the $1825–$1800 zone (April pivot).
Confluence and Divergence Notes
Confluence exists at $1870–$1877, where Bollinger Lower Band, Fibonacci 23.6%, and the current swing low converge. A breakdown here would align with bearish MACD and moving average signals. No significant divergences appear among oscillators, though low-volume selling creates tension with otherwise negative momentum indicators. The technical framework suggests elevated downside risk unless price reclaims $1936 resistance. Should $1870 hold, a reflexive bounce toward $1900–$1936 is plausible but likely met with selling pressure per volume-profile resistance.