Citigroup Gains 3.93% as Bullish Candlestick and MACD Crossover Signal Key Resistance Test

Citigroup (C) has rallied 3.42% in the most recent session, extending its two-day gain to 3.93%. This upward momentum, combined with the historical data, provides a robust foundation for technical analysis. The stock’s recent price action, volume dynamics, and indicator behavior suggest a mix of bullish and cautionary signals, with key confluence points and divergences to monitor.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns suggest a potential short-term bullish bias. The two-day rally forms a bullish engulfing pattern, where the second candle (106.72) fully engulfs the prior bearish candle (103.19). This pattern often signals a reversal after a downtrend. Key support levels emerge at the 102.68 (December 1) and 99.69 (November 24) levels, while resistance is clustered around 106.99 (December 3 high). A break above 106.99 could target the next Fibonacci extension at ~110.50, but a failure to hold above 103.01 (December 2 low) may trigger a retest of the 97.63 (November 20) support.
Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (~101.20) currently sits below the 200-day (~96.80), indicating a bullish crossover (golden cross) is still pending but gaining momentum. The price is trading above the 50-day MA, suggesting short-term strength, while the 200-day MA provides a critical psychological floor. A sustained close above the 106.99 level would align the 50-day MA with the 100-day (~102.40), reinforcing the uptrend. However, the 200-day MA remains a key barrier for long-term bullish confirmation.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD line has crossed above the signal line, forming a bullish crossover, with a histogram showing increasing positive momentum. The KDJ (Stochastic) oscillator, currently at 75% K and 55% D, suggests the stock is nearing overbought territory but has not yet breached the 80% threshold. This implies caution: while momentum is strong, a pullback to the 102.68–103.01 range could trigger a KDJ divergence (higher highs in price vs. lower highs in oscillator), signaling a potential reversal.
Bollinger Bands
The price is currently near the upper Bollinger Band (107.50), indicating high volatility and a potential overbought condition. The band width has widened recently, reflecting increased market activity. A sustained close above the upper band may prompt a continuation of the uptrend, but a reversion toward the middle band (~104.20) is probable. The lower band (~100.50) acts as a dynamic support, and a break below this could signal a shift in sentiment.
Volume-Price Relationship
Trading volume has surged in the past two sessions (13.8M and 8.1M shares), validating the recent price strength. However, the volume on the 3.42% rally (13.8M) is slightly below the peak volume seen during the November 16–26 rally (17.4M–11.4M). This suggests sustainability concerns if the stock faces resistance near 107.00. A decline in volume during a breakout would weaken bullish conviction, while a surge above 15M shares could confirm institutional buying.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI stands at ~68, indicating it is approaching overbought territory. While not yet above 70, this level suggests caution. Historical RSI behavior shows the indicator has frequently tested 70 during recent rallies but retreated, implying a bearish warning. A close above 70 would require a 1.8% move to 108.00, which is plausible but may trigger profit-taking. A drop below 60 would signal weakening momentum, with the 50–60 range acting as a key consolidation zone.
Fibonacci Retracement
Key Fibonacci levels from the October 16 low (96.26) to the December 3 high (106.72) include 38.2% at ~101.50 and 61.8% at ~103.80. The current price of 106.72 aligns with the 78.6% retracement level, suggesting a potential exhaustion point. A breakdown below 103.80 would target the 78.6% level (~99.80), while a breakout above 107.00 could test the 100% extension (~116.00).
Confluence and Divergences
The most compelling confluence occurs at the 103.01–103.60 range, where Fibonacci 61.8%, Bollinger middle band, and 50-day MA converge. A retest here could see the KDJ and MACD align for a bullish confirmation. Divergences are evident between the RSI and price action: while the RSI remains below overbought, the price has already surged 3.93% in two days, hinting at potential exhaustion. Traders should monitor for a bearish divergence if the RSI fails to make higher highs while the price does.

Probabilistic Outlook
The stock is in a high-probability bullish setup, with confluence of candlestick strength, moving average alignment, and volume validation. However, the overbought RSI and widening Bollinger Bands introduce caution. A 107.00–108.00 breakout would likely see a continuation, but a pullback to 103.01–101.50 is probable. The risk-reward profile favors longs in the short term but requires tight stop-loss placement below 102.68.