Citigroup C 2025Q3 Earnings Preview Downside Risk on Weaker Outlook

Forward-Looking Analysis
Analysts expect Citigroup to post Q3 earnings with a projected earnings per share (EPS) of $1.88, revised upward from a prior estimate of $1.79 by Seaport Res Ptn. While the bank is anticipated to show gains in revenues and earnings, consensus forecasts point to slightly weaker results, consistent with its recent stock performance. Despite strong investment banking momentum, uncertainty remains about whether the firm can replicate its Q2 2025 success, which saw a net income of $4.03 billion and EPS of $2.18. The latest TTM earnings stand at $14.2 billion through June 30, 2025, reflecting an 88.2% year-over-year increase.

Historical Performance Review
In Q2 2025, Citigroup reported net income of $4.03 billion with an EPS of $2.18, marking a strong performance despite the absence of specific revenue figures. The trailing twelve-month (TTM) earnings reached $14.2 billion, showing robust year-over-year growth of 88.2%, indicating a resilient earnings trajectory in the first half of 2025.

Additional News
Citigroup is preparing to release its Q3 earnings report on October 14, 2025. Recent market sentiment suggests a more cautious outlook, with consensus expectations reflecting slightly weaker results compared to previous quarters. The bank’s recent stock performance appears to align with this outlook. The latest earnings press release for Q2 2025 provided insights into the composition of Citigroup’s CET1 Capital, as detailed in Appendix D of the 2Q25 earnings document.

Summary & Outlook
Citigroup's 2025Q2 performance was strong, with $4.03 billion in net income and EPS of $2.18, but Q3 expectations are more conservative. Analysts project an EPS of $1.88, indicating potential earnings pressure. Despite gains in investment banking and a robust TTM earnings figure of $14.2 billion, the bank faces downside risk due to weaker consensus forecasts. Citigroup remains in a neutral to bearish outlook, with growth contingent on maintaining its momentum and overcoming market headwinds. Investors should closely monitor Q3 results for clarity on the bank's trajectory.