CITIC Securities: In the face of multiple uncertainties, US stocks may persist in a downward trend, characterized by continued fluctuations.
1min read According to CITIC Securities, the US stock market is currently facing several uncertainties, including Trump's tariff policy, the Fed's interest rate policy, and the growth of individual technology giants' cloud computing and data center businesses falling short of expectations. Additionally, the overall valuation of US stocks remains high, with the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones still at 21.0 times and 19.9 times, respectively, at the 79% and 82% percentiles of history; while the 24.7 times dynamic PE of the Nasdaq 100 also corresponds to the 70% percentile of history. After the previous "unlanding" and "tax cuts and relaxed regulations" optimism was fully exhausted, the valuation bubble may be further squeezed under the signs of weakening fundamentals. Therefore, we expect that the US stock market will continue to fluctuate downward until the end of March/early April before the above issues are clarified. We recommend paying attention to: 1) Healthcare with relatively reasonable valuation and strong defensive attributes; 2) Service-oriented consumption driven by domestic demand; 3) Traditional telecommunications and utilities with high dividend rates. After the issues of tariffs, the Fed's monetary policy path, etc. are clarified, and the valuation premium is also fully digested, we believe that the US stock market style will return to large-cap blue chips at that time.
