Citi Mexico Survey Expects Rate Cut in August, Peso Weakens, Inflation Increases

Citi Mexico Expectations Survey (July 7, 2025) shows most participants expect a 25bps rate cut in August 2025, with a median forecast for the policy rate at 7.50% by year-end 2025 and 6.75% by year-end 2026. Peso expectations were reduced for both years, with the consensus projecting USDMXN at 20.00 for year-end 2025 and 20.50 for year-end 2026. Inflation projections for year-end 2025 and 2026 increased, while GDP growth estimates for 2025 and 2026 were marginally increased to 0.2% and 1.3%, respectively.