Citi Boosts Tin Price Forecast for Q1, Expects Easing in Q2

Citi analysts have raised their average tin price forecast for the first quarter, anticipating a bullish outlook driven by supply disruptions and robust demand. The brokerage increased its three-month price target for tin from $26,000 to $32,000 a ton, reflecting a more optimistic view of the metal's prospects in the coming months.

Supply disruptions in key tin-producing regions, such as Myanmar and Indonesia, have contributed to the tightness in the tin market. In Myanmar, mining operations in Wa State may not resume within the next six months, while Indonesia's export volumes remain uncertain due to delays in export permits. These supply constraints could push prices higher, as ore availability for Chinese smelters remains low.

On the demand side, China's tin consumption is projected to rise in the first quarter, driven by a solid recovery in the white goods market and a slight rebound in mobile phones and personal computers. This growth in demand, coupled with supply disruptions, could support higher tin prices.

However, Citi's revised price forecast for the second quarter reflects an expected easing in demand and supply dynamics. The brokerage expects prices to ease to around $26,000 to $32,000 a ton in the coming months, as supply risks from Indonesia and Myanmar fail to offset sluggish demand from the consumer electronics sector. While falling SHFE stocks and China's shift to net tin imports could trigger short-term volatility, sustained price gains are unlikely without a more substantial demand recovery.

In the long term, prices are expected to continue on an upward trend, as demand remains robust and the market remains tight. The Tin Quarterly Report provides a detailed analysis of the latest developments, structural trends, and risks to the price outlook, with both long- and short-term views formed by the expert commodities team. This report covers production, consumption, and the competitive landscape, offering insights into the key factors driving the tin market.

As the market looks ahead, analysts are keen to monitor the specifics of China's implementation of stimulus measures and their direct impact on commodity prices. The tangible reactions in the physical market to higher prices will also play a crucial role in determining the sustainability of any price increases. Investors should stay informed about the evolving dynamics in the tin market and adjust their portfolios accordingly to capitalize on potential opportunities.