Citadel Securities Challenges Citrini's 'Global Intelligence Crisis' Thesis

Citadel Securities has challenged Citrini Research’s thesis of an AI-driven labor crisis, arguing that historical patterns of technological adoption suggest AI is more likely to complement than replace human labor according to Bloomberg.

The firm notes that technological change typically follows an S-curve pattern, with slow initial adoption, rapid growth, and eventual saturation. According to Citadel Securities, AI is currently at the early stage of this curve, and widespread job displacement remains unlikely.

Citrini Research’s report, which warned of mass unemployment and a stock market collapse due to AI, has drawn sharp criticism from investors and economists. Critics argue the thesis lacks empirical support and has unnecessarily spooked financial markets.

Why Did This Happen?

The debate over AI’s labor market impact has intensified as adoption accelerates. Citadel Securities points to current labor market data, including rising job postings for software engineers and increased construction hiring linked to data center projects, as signs of continued labor demand according to Bloomberg.

Citrini’s scenario assumes a negative feedback loop in which AI adoption reduces workers’ purchasing power, leading to further automation. However, Citadel Securities and others argue that such a spiral is not evident in current data.

How Did Markets React?

The controversy has introduced volatility into markets, particularly in sectors where AI adoption is expected to be rapid. Some investors have moved capital from Bitcoin ETFs into alternative crypto assets like Solana and XRP according to FXStreet.

Meanwhile, regulatory bodies are also taking note. South Korea’s Financial Supervisory Service has expanded its use of AI-powered tools to monitor crypto markets, signaling increased scrutiny of the sector.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

The key debate centers on the speed and scale of AI adoption. Citadel Securities argues that technical and economic constraints, such as the high cost of compute power and the need for human interaction in many tasks, will slow large-scale displacement.