Circle Surges 25.36% On Bullish Reversal With Strong Volume Backing

Candlestick Theory
Circle's recent price action reveals volatile sentiment. The most recent session (2025-06-13) formed a robust bullish candle, closing near its high of 134.72 after testing support at 108.80 (prior day’s low). This follows a hammer-like pattern on 2025-06-11 (low of 106.50) after a bearish gap-down on 2025-06-10, suggesting interim support near 105. Resistance emerges at 138.57 (2025-06-09 high), with secondary resistance at 134.72. The 2025-06-05 candle’s long upper wick (high: 103.75, close: 83.23) historically caps rallies, but its breach on 2025-06-06 shifted it to support.
Moving Average Theory
Using 5-day data (insufficient for longer periods), Circle’s price rebounded sharply above its 5-day MA (~111.80). The 2025-06-13 close (133.56) now sits 19.5% above this level, signaling strong short-term momentum. The gap recovery from the 2025-06-10 close (105.91) to 2025-06-13 suggests bullish near-term alignment, though longer-term MAs remain indeterminable with limited history.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD parameters (12/26-day) are constrained by data scarcity. However, KDJ (standard 9-day) shows Circle exiting oversold territory (KDJ reading <20) on 2025-06-11 before surging. The subsequent K-line (2025-06-13) crossed above the D-line with strong volume, implying accelerating upside momentum. Overbought risks may emerge if this velocity persists without consolidation.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded markedly during the rally: Bandwidth widened from 2025-06-05 to 2025-06-09 (high: 138.57), then contracted during the 2025-06-10–12 consolidation. Circle’s close near the upper band (133.56 vs. estimated ~128) on 2025-06-13 confirms bullish breakout conditions. Sustained trading above the upper band may precede short-term pullbacks.
Volume-Price Relationship
Bullish volume confirmation is evident: The 25.36% surge on 2025-06-13 occurred alongside above-average volume (33.5M vs. prior 10-day avg ~32M). This follows climactic selling on 2025-06-10 (volume spike to 45.5M during decline), suggesting capitulation before reversal. The 2025-06-06 rally (60.7M volume, +29.4%) established structural support, now reinforced by recent volume-backed recovery.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Calculating RSI (5-day lookback): Average Gain = (29.40 + 7.01 + 10.66 + 25.36)/5 = 14.49; Average Loss = (8.10 + 9.10)/5 = 3.44 → RSI = [14.49/(14.49+3.44)]×100 ≈ 81. Circle now registers as overbought (RSI >70), implying elevated near-term pullback risk. However, overbought readings can persist in strong trends, warranting caution rather than outright bearishness.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels between Circle’s swing low (64.00 on 2025-06-05) and high (138.57 on 2025-06-09): Key retracement levels are 38.2% (107.60), 50% (101.29), and 61.8% (95.97). The 2025-06-10 low (101.51) tested the 50% support precisely before rebounding. Recent price action confirms 107.60 as dynamic support, aligning with the high-volume close on 2025-06-06 (107.70).
Confluence & Divergence Summary
Confluence occurs near 108.00–110.00: Bollinger mid-band, Fib 38.2%, and prior candle support consolidate this as critical near-term support. Divergence exists between overbought RSI (warning signal) and robust volume-backed price strength (bullish confirmation). Probable outcomes include either continuation after brief consolidation or short-term correction to relieve overbought RSI, provided support at 110.00 holds. A breach below 105.91 would invalidate the impulsive structure.