Circle Stock Targeted at $230 by Bernstein Analysts

Circle, the issuer of the stablecoin USDC, has been assigned an "Outperform" rating by analysts from the research and brokerage firm Bernstein. The target price for Circle's stock has been set at $230. The analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, highlighted Circle's market-leading position in the digital dollar stablecoin network, citing regulatory advantages, liquidity primacy, and top-tier channel partnerships as key factors. According to the analysts, Circle is a must-have investment target for those positioning for the next decade of internet-scale financial infrastructure.

The analysts expect stablecoins to evolve from being a payment rail in the crypto market to becoming the entire internet's payment infrastructure. They predict that the total supply of stablecoins will increase 16-fold from the current $244 billion to $40 trillion over the next decade. This growth is anticipated to be driven by the transformative development of crypto and tokenized capital markets, payment systems, and stablecoin-native financial services.

Chhugani emphasized that with the recent passage of the "GENIUS Act" by the U.S. Senate, USDC will become the largest regulated stablecoin under this act. This regulatory primacy advantage will make USDC the preferred partner for internet platforms, not limited to trading platforms. Circle's $61.4 billion liquidity reserve is seen as a significant barrier for newcomers, who may struggle with the "cold start" problem.

However, Bernstein predicts that Circle will only be able to capture a 30% share of this potential $40 trillion market, increasing by just 5 percentage points from its current 25% market share. Currently, Tether (USDT) dominates with a 65% market share, holding $1.585 trillion in supply. As a foreign issuer, Tether may need to establish a U.S. subsidiary to comply with new regulatory requirements.

Chhugani pointed out that Circle's stock price currently corresponds to 56 times adjusted EBITDA for 2026 and 28 times for 2027, reflecting investors' strong demand for a pure-play stablecoin target. Bernstein has given a $230 valuation using a ten-year discounted cash flow model, equivalent to approximately 35 times adjusted EBITDA for 2027. The firm expects a 47% compound annual growth rate in revenue and a 71% growth rate in EBITDA from 2024 to 2027, with USDC's adoption offsetting income pressure from interest rates. The analysts advise seizing buying opportunities during market pullbacks.