Circle Stock Slides 4.36% to 131.8 as Bearish Signals Persist Across Technical Indicators

Circle (CRCL) declined 4.36% in the latest session, closing at 131.8 after trading between 131.59 and 136.99 amid moderate volume. This downward move extends a bearish trajectory observed over the past month, warranting a multifaceted technical assessment across established methodologies.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions show consecutive bearish signals, including multiple long upper wicks indicating rejection at higher levels. The price action formed an evening star pattern between August 18-20, foreshadowing the latest decline. Key resistance now converges near 144–149 (August 18–19 highs), while immediate support resides at 129.1–131.6 (August 20–21 lows). A sustained breach below 129.1 could accelerate selling pressure.
Moving Average Theory
The stock trades significantly below all calculated moving averages, confirming a bearish structural trend. The 50-day MA (approximately 175.5) and 100-day MA (roughly 193.8) slope downward, with the shorter 50-day accelerating beneath the 100-day since early August. This "death cross" configuration signals persistent medium-term weakness. Price remains over 13% below the 50-day MA, highlighting strong downward momentum.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram maintains a bearish trajectory below both the signal line and zero, though its slope is moderating, suggesting potential exhaustion in downside momentum. Meanwhile, the KDJ oscillator shows %K (18.3) and %D (22.1) deeply oversold but intertwined in the sub-30 zone for seven sessions. While typically signaling reversal potential, this persistent oversold state warns of entrenched bearish sentiment. Bullish conviction would require %K rising decisively above %D alongside MACD crossing above its signal line.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20-day SMA basis) contracted notably in August after high July volatility, with the bandwidth narrowing by 28% mid-month. However, prices have anchored near the lower band since August 14, reflecting continued distribution. The current position at 99.9% of the lower band implies severely oversold conditions, but the lack of bullish price confirmation keeps the downtrend technically intact.
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent declines exhibit ambiguous volume signals: August 21’s 4.36% drop occurred on below-average volume (4.90M shares) versus the preceding down days (August 19: 9.69M; August 14: 17.91M). This divergence could reflect diminishing bearish pressure, though rally attempts (e.g., August 15’s 7.20% gain) also lacked volume validation. The volume profile overall supports consolidation rather than capitulation or accumulation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI stands at 24.7, deeply oversold and below the 30 benchmark for four consecutive sessions. While this extreme reading suggests exhaustion risk, persistently low RSI during sustained downtrends warns against premature reversal calls. Historical parallels occurred in early July when RSI remained sub-30 for five sessions before a brief relief rally. Current conditions necessitate price confirmation for any upside reversal.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the June–July swing high (263.45 on June 23) and June 5 low (83.23), key retracement thresholds are established. The recent breakdown below the 50% level (173.34) in late July triggered accelerated declines, with prices now probing the 78.6% retracement at 113.08. The breach of the 61.8% level (136.36) in yesterday’s session was reaffirmed today, turning this zone into immediate resistance. Sustained trading below 136.36 would likely target 113.08–115.25 (78.6% level + June 9 swing low).
Concluding Synthesis
Multiple indicators converge to signal entrenched bearishness: Price trades below all MAs and key Fibonacci supports, with Bollinger Bands confirming persistent downside. However, non-confirmations exist—diminishing volume on new lows, deeply oversold RSI/KDJ readings, and MACD’s moderating histogram—hinting at potential exhaustion. A meaningful reversal requires decisive recovery above 136.36 (Fibonacci 61.8%) with volume expansion. Until such technical evidence emerges, the path of least resistance remains downward, with critical support around 129.1–113.08. Given the elevated oversold readings, tactical short-covering rallies are probable but unlikely to gain traction without sustained volume confirmation.