Circle Soars 61.56% In Two Sessions As Technicals Signal Bullish Momentum

Circle (CRCL) surged 20.73% in the most recent session, marking its second consecutive daily gain and accumulating a 61.56% increase over these two sessions. This explosive upward movement follows a period of heightened volatility, warranting examination through multiple technical lenses.
Candlestick Theory
The recent 48-hour surge materialized as two large bullish candles, with the second session (June 20) opening sharply above the prior close (gap from $199.59 to $206.17) and closing near its high ($240.96). This gap qualifies as a bullish breakaway gap, reinforcing momentum. The June 20 candle’s upper shadow ($248.88 high vs. $240.96 close) signals minor resistance near $249. Immediate support rests at the gap zone ($199.59–$206.17), validated by the absence of closes below this range since the breakout. Resistance is now evident near $249, with psychological resistance looming at $250.
Moving Average Theory
A 5-period SMA (approximating a 10-day equivalent given data limitations) sits at $174.86, while a 10-period SMA (proxy for 20-day) is at $142.69. The accelerating slope of the 5-period SMA above the slower average confirms robust short-term momentum. The widening spread between these averages ($32.17) indicates strengthening bullish conviction. Current price ($240.96) trades well above both averages, signaling sustained upward pressure absent mean-reversion signals.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
Despite insufficient data for conventional MACD/KDJ calculation, price momentum metrics can be inferred. The consecutive >20% rallies exhibit vertical momentum typically associated with overbought conditions. However, the absence of bearish divergences in this compressed timeframe suggests persistent buying urgency. Traders should monitor for any loss of upward velocity or failure to consolidate above $240 as early exhaustion signals.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expansion is evident as bands widen aggressively during the two-day surge (June 18–20). The June 20 close ($240.96) approaches the upper band (estimated near $250), reflecting extreme bullish momentum. Historically, such expansions preceded pullbacks (e.g., June 9 and June 13 rallies). Band squeeze precedents (June 10–12) resolved with directional breaks. Current price proximity to the upper band warrants caution, though expanded bandwidth accommodates continued upside.
Volume-Price Relationship
Robust volume corroborates the surge: June 20 volume (87.2M shares) exceeded the 10-day average by 200%, confirming institutional participation. The two-day rally coincided with the highest volumes in the dataset, validating breakout sustainability. Earlier pullbacks (June 12, June 17) occurred on below-average volume, indicating weak conviction in downside moves—a bullish volume signature.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Using a 6-period calculation (adjusted for data constraints), recent gains yield an RSI reading near 85—deep in overbought territory. While this warns of short-term exhaustion, the indicator’s tendency to remain extended during parabolic moves tempers its reliability. Previous overbought peaks (e.g., June 6 RSI ~78) resolved with shallow retracements before renewed buying.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the dominant swing low ($64 on June 5) and swing high ($248.88 on June 20) highlights key thresholds. The 23.6% retracement at $205 aligns precisely with the recent breakout gap ($199.59–$206.17), creating a confluence support zone. Deeper supports emerge at $178 (38.2%) and $156 (50%). These levels coincide with prior consolidation highs (June 9–16), reinforcing technical significance.
Confluence & Divergence Observations
Confluence appears at the $205–$206 support, where the gap zone, 23.6% Fibonacci level, and 5-period SMA convergence create a high-probability demand area. Volume divergence is absent, as rising volumes consistently validate rallies. The lone technical conflict involves RSI’s extreme overbought reading against Bollinger Band expansion—historically resolved via consolidation rather than sharp reversals in such momentum-driven moves. Investors should prioritize the primary trend’s volume confirmation over oscillator warnings, though probabilistic upside may now require periodic digestion near $250.