Circle's Q4 Beat: Flow Metrics Show 72% USDC Growth, 412% EBITDA Surge

Circle's fourth-quarter results delivered a powerful beat on both earnings and revenue. The company posted EPS of $0.43, crushing the consensus estimate by 23%. Total revenue reached $770 million, a 77% year-over-year jump that also topped analyst forecasts. This top-line strength flowed directly into the bottom line, where adjusted EBITDA climbed 412% YoY to $167 million.

The market's immediate reaction was a clear vote of confidence. Circle's stock jumped over 15% in pre-market trading following the report, with shares trading near $71.17. This surge reflects the market pricing in the dramatic leverage from revenue growth to profitability, a key metric for investors assessing the company's scaling efficiency.

The financial flow is now set to support Circle's ambitious growth targets. The company has guided for a 40% compound annual growth rate for USDC in circulation through the cycle, a trajectory that requires sustained high-margin revenue. The Q4 results, with their massive EBITDA expansion, demonstrate the company is building the necessary financial engine to fund that expansion.

The Core Growth Engine: USDC Flow

The primary fuel for Circle's financial engine is the explosive growth in USDC's onchain footprint. At year-end, USDC circulation reached about $75.3 billion, a 72% year-over-year increase. This massive supply expansion provides the liquidity foundation for intense usage across the ecosystem.

That usage has intensified dramatically. In the fourth quarter alone, USDC onchain transaction volume hit $11.9 trillion, surging 247% from the prior year. This isn't just about more coins changing hands; it's about the network's velocity and utility accelerating at a staggering pace.

The momentum carried into the new year, hitting a record. In January 2026, adjusted stablecoin transfer volume hit a record $8 trillion, with the majority of that growth driven by USDC on the Base blockchain. This record volume, fueled by a massive spike in large transfers, underscores the network's central role in facilitating high-value activity, whether for DeFi or other onchain operations.

Financial Impact and Forward Flow

The full-year picture reveals a company in a powerful transition. For 2025, Circle reported revenue of $2.7 billion, a solid 64% increase. Yet the bottom line was compressed by a massive $424 million in stock-based compensation tied to its IPO, resulting in a net loss of $70 million for the year. This is the accounting reality: explosive top-line growth is being temporarily offset by one-time, high-cost equity grants.

Beneath the headline net loss, the underlying cash generation is staggering. The company's adjusted EBITDA for FY25 reached $582 million, a 104% surge from the prior year. This metric strips out non-cash items like compensation and shows the core business is producing immense operating cash flow. The Q4 results amplified this trend, with a 412% year-over-year jump in adjusted EBITDA to $167 million. The financial flow is now decisively positive.

The forward-looking question is whether this momentum can convert to higher net income as compensation expenses normalize. The path is clear: the company must sustain its 72% year-over-year growth in USDC circulation to keep the top-line expanding. With the IPO-related compensation costs a one-time peak, the next phase of profitability hinges on whether this flow can drive net income into the black and fund new initiatives like the Arc blockchain.