Circle Plunges 7.56% to 177.97 as Bearish Technicals Accelerate Selloff

Circle (CRCL) declined 7.56% in its latest trading session, closing at 177.97 on substantial volume of 18.5 million shares, establishing the immediate technical context for our analysis. The following technical assessment synthesizes key indicators using the provided price history spanning June 2025 to present.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions reveal critical bearish patterns. The July 1st inverted hammer (high:194, close:192.53) after a 6.20% gain foreshadowed rejection near psychological resistance at 190-194. This was confirmed by yesterday's long red candle engulfing the prior two sessions, signaling strong downside conviction. Key support emerges at 175.60 (June 27 low), while the 190-194 zone now constitutes formidable resistance. The June 26th dark cloud cover pattern (open:205.68, close:198.62) previously marked the failure to sustain prices above 200.
Moving Average Theory
With a 5-day SMA at 184.59 and 10-day SMA at 197.71, the steeply descending short-term averages confirm bearish momentum. Price remains decisively below both, while the widening gap between them indicates accelerating downside pressure. The longer-term 19-day SMA (serving as our proxy 20-day) at 186.75 was violated with conviction, transforming it from support to resistance.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (-8.23) resides deep in negative territory with a bearishly expanding histogram, confirming strong downward momentum. Concurrently, KDJ shows an oversold but deteriorating condition (K:18.7, D:24.1, J:7.9). Notably, the sub-20 J-line suggests potential for a minor technical bounce, though the sustained K-D cross below 20 implies continued weakness. No bullish divergence is yet observable.
Bollinger Bands
Prices broke below the lower Bollinger Band (189.52) with conviction, typically signaling oversold conditions. However, the bands are expanding (bandwidth +28% weekly), indicating volatility acceleration rather than exhaustion. This expansion during breakdown suggests continuation risk. A close back inside the bands would be the first sign of stabilization.
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution patterns are evident. The June 23rd peak at 263.45 occurred on massive volume (99.1M shares), confirming institutional exit. Subsequent breakdowns (June 24th:68.2M, June 27th:48.1M) occurred on elevated volume, validating bearish momentum. Yesterday's decline on reduced volume (18.5M) may indicate near-term selling exhaustion, but requires confirmation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI at 31.57 edges near oversold territory but remains above the critical 30 threshold. It has consistently failed to breach 50 during relief rallies since late June, reinforcing the downtrend. While approaching oversold levels, the absence of positive divergence suggests the indicator may not yet signal a durable bottom.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing low of 83.23 (June 5) to high of 263.45 (June 23), key retracement levels provide critical reference. The 50% retracement (173.34) and 61.8% level (156.18) emerge as potential downside targets. Current trading near the 38.2% retracement (198.06) has failed to hold, with the next meaningful support expected at the 173.34 confluence zone.
Confluence and Divergence
Multiple indicators align bearishly near-term, with price below key SMAs, MACD accelerating downward, and Bollinger Band breakdown. However, KDJ and RSI approach oversold thresholds that have previously triggered technical bounces. The notable divergence appears in volume: the recent lower-volume sell-off may contradict the otherwise bearish momentum signals, hinting at potential near-term consolidation above the 173.34 Fibonacci support. Traders should monitor for stabilization above 175.60 with corresponding volume contraction to signal near-term exhaustion.