Circle (CRCL) Plunges 5.33%: What's Behind the Sudden Sell-Off?

Summary
• CRCL trades at $130.14, down 5.33% from its previous close of $137.47
• Intraday range spans $129.33 to $134.00, reflecting sharp volatility
• Recent public offering and insider selling cited as key triggers

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) faces a dramatic intraday selloff, with shares tumbling 5.33% to $130.14 as of 1:44 PM EDT. The stock’s 17.88 million turnover and 1.28% turnover rate highlight intense short-term trading pressure. Amid a $658 million Q2 revenue surge, regulatory scrutiny, share dilution, and crypto sector volatility converge to test investor confidence.

Public Offering and Insider Selling Trigger CRCL's Sharp Decline
CRCL’s 5.33% drop stems from a $130-per-share public offering priced below its late-August close of $139. The offering included 2 million new shares and 8 million from insiders under a JPMorgan lock-up waiver, sparking dilution fears. Despite Q2 revenue growth driven by USDC adoption, a $482 million net loss from IPO-related charges and regulatory uncertainty around stablecoins have amplified selling pressure. The stock’s 52-week low of $64 and -36.09 P/E ratio underscore its precarious valuation.

Payment Processing Sector Mixed as Visa (V) Gains 0.85%
CRCL’s decline contrasts with Visa (V), which rose 0.85% amid easing debit fee regulations. The payment sector faces dual pressures: CRCL’s crypto-driven volatility versus traditional players navigating regulatory shifts. While CRCL’s tokenized treasury expansion targets $8 billion in RWAs, sector peers like Visa benefit from stable interchange fee structures. CRCL’s struggles highlight crypto’s regulatory fragility compared to legacy payment rails.

Options Playbook: CRCL20251017P130 and CRCL20251017P132 Lead the Bearish Charge
• MACD: 1.87 (bullish divergence), RSI: 54.48 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: 121.03–155.13 (oversold)
• 200D MA: Unavailable, 30D MA: 132.32 (resistance)

CRCL’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias, with key support at $126 (lower Bollinger band) and resistance at $132.32. The 54.48 RSI and 1.87 MACD signal potential for a rebound but remain cautious on upside. For options, CRCL20251017P130 and CRCL20251017P132 stand out:

• CRCL20251017P130: Put option, strike $130, exp 10/17. IV: 101.78% (high volatility), Delta: -0.4207 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -0.0786 (slow decay), Gamma: 0.0278 (price sensitivity). Turnover: 316,842 (liquid).
• CRCL20251017P132: Put option, strike $132, exp 10/17. IV: 104.82% (elevated), Delta: -0.4768 (strong bearish bias), Theta: -0.0257 (minimal decay), Gamma: 0.0275 (responsive to price swings). Turnover: 66,920 (active).

Assuming a 5% downside to $123.63, CRCL20251017P130 yields $6.37 per contract (66% gain), while CRCL20251017P132 nets $8.57 (85% gain). These contracts offer high leverage (28.69% and 22.95%) and liquidity, ideal for short-term bearish bets. Aggressive traders may target $126 support with CRCL20251017P130, while CRCL20251017P132 suits those expecting a $132 breakdown.

Backtest Circle Stock Performance
Below is the interactive back-test report. Key set-ups that were auto-filled:• Holding window: 10 trading days – a common horizon for short-term mean-reversion plays. • Take-profit / stop-loss: +10 % / −8 % – typical for balancing upside capture and capital protection. • Pricing: daily close – aligns with typical end-of-day execution for this style.Overall, the “buy-the-−5 % intraday plunge” tactic on Circle (CRCL.N) from Jan-2022 to 14-Oct-2025 failed to deliver positive returns and exhibited high drawdown, suggesting the move is not reliably mean-reverting for this stock.You can explore full details, trade list and equity curve in the module.

Act Now: CRCL's 5.33% Drop Signals Short-Term Volatility—Position for a Rebound or Exit
CRCL’s 5.33% selloff reflects near-term dilution risks and crypto sector jitters, but its 52-week low of $64 and $635 million USYC fund expansion hint at long-term resilience. Investors should monitor the $126 support level and $132.32 30D MA for directional clues. Meanwhile, Visa (V)’s 0.85% gain underscores the sector’s divergence between crypto and traditional rails. For CRCL, a rebound above $134.00 could reignite bullish momentum, but a breakdown below $129.33 would validate bearish sentiment. Watch for $126 support or regulatory clarity—position accordingly.