CIFRs $734M Loss Hides a 600-MW HPC Bet

Cipher Digital (CIFR) reported Q4 2025 results that missed Wall Street expectations, with revenue of $59.71 million and a net loss of $734.21 million. The company confirmed a strategic pivot from Bitcoin mining to high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructure, securing 600 megawatts of contracted capacity. Management emphasized long-term growth through HPC hosting and disciplined capital reallocation.

Revenue

Cipher Digital’s total revenue surged 41.4% year-over-year to $59.71 million in Q4 2025, driven by ongoing operational adjustments and strategic reallocation of resources. The increase reflects the company’s transition from Bitcoin mining to hyperscale digital infrastructure, though the underlying business transformation has not yet translated into profitability.

Earnings/Net Income

The company reported a net loss of $734.21 million in Q4 2025, representing a 4293.1% deterioration from net income of $17.51 million in Q4 2024. Earnings per share swung to a loss of $1.86, down from $0.05, marking an unprecedented negative change of 3824.0%. The significant loss underscores the challenges of transitioning from Bitcoin mining to HPC infrastructure. This performance is clearly detrimental to shareholder value.

Post-Earnings Price Action Review

A strategy of buying Cipher Digital shares after quarterly revenue declines on earnings release dates and holding for 30 days has historically delivered exceptional returns. Over three years, this approach generated an 867.28% return, far outperforming the 56.52% benchmark. The strategy’s excess return of 810.76% highlights its effectiveness in capitalizing on post-revenue-drop volatility. Despite a maximum drawdown of 86.51%, the 77.16% compound annual growth rate and Sharpe ratio of 0.61 indicate strong risk-adjusted performance, suggesting the strategy’s potential for future use.

CEO Commentary

CEO Tyler Page highlighted Cipher’s transformation into a hyperscale infrastructure provider, securing 600 megawatts of leased capacity and $9.3 billion in contracted revenue. Key milestones include a $2 billion bond financing, acquisition of a 200-megawatt Ohio site, and exit from Bitcoin mining by 2026. Page emphasized $669 million in projected average annualized net operating income (NOI) from 2026–2036, with confidence in navigating regulatory shifts and advancing interconnect approvals.

Guidance

Cipher Digital targets $669 million in average annualized NOI from 2026–2036, with $754 million projected by 2035. The company aims to liquidate remaining Bitcoin inventory by 2026, reinvesting proceeds into HPC hosting. CFO Greg Mumford confirmed $754 million in unrestricted liquidity and no further equity raises for contracted projects, with project-level financing securing Barber Lake and Black Pearl developments. Management reiterated confidence in executing a 3.4 gigawatt pipeline while leveraging low-cost power and behind-the-meter solutions.

Additional News

Cipher Digital rebranded from Cipher Mining to Cipher Digital, reflecting its pivot to HPC infrastructure. The company secured 600 megawatts of contracted capacity, including 15-year, 300 MW leases with AWS and a 10-year, 300 MW agreement with Fluidstack and Google. In a significant funding move, Cipher raised $3.73 billion through three senior secured bond offerings to finance its Barber Lake and Black Pearl data center projects. Additionally, the company exited 49% stakes in three Bitcoin mining joint ventures for $40 million in stock, streamlining its operations toward its HPC-focused business model.