Choosing a Mattress: A Flow-Based Guide to Value and Risk

The mattress market is a large, established industry with a clear growth trajectory. The U.S. market generated $12.9 billion in revenue in 2024 and is projected to reach $18.6 billion by 2030, implying a steady 6.4% compound annual growth rate. On a global scale, the market was valued at $57.51 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow at a 7.5% CAGR, highlighting significant long-term expansion potential.

Yet, this long-term view contrasts with near-term financial pressure. The broader U.S. Bed & Mattress Stores industry, which includes retail, saw revenue hit $28.4 billion in 2025 but grew only 1.3% year-over-year. This moderating growth signals a market in transition, where premiumization and product innovation are critical for retailers to defend share against mass merchants and online disruptors.

The bottom line is that a large, growing market faces immediate demand headwinds. For consumers and investors alike, this makes a flow-based approach to value-focusing on price, volume, and liquidity-essential for navigating the current turbulence.

Channel Economics: The Online Value Flow

The financial flow of value is clearest in the channel divide. Online shoppers spend an average of $984, a $258 gap below in-store buyers. This price advantage is the core driver of satisfaction, with online shoppers reporting an overall score 9 points higher than retail store customers.

That satisfaction translates directly to competitive pressure. Less than half of consumers are extremely likely or very likely to be brand loyal, indicating a market where value perception, not allegiance, dictates purchase flow. The online channel captures this value perception, forcing traditional retailers to justify their higher price points through unique in-store advantages.

The bottom line is a bifurcated value chain. The online flow is defined by lower prices and higher perceived value, while the in-store flow must rely on experiential factors like service and environment to compete. For any player, the financial imperative is to align their channel strategy with the dominant value flow.

Risk Mitigation: Trial Periods, Warranties, and Price

The financial safety net for a major purchase like a mattress is now a standard feature, not a perk. For online retailers, offering an at-home sleep trial has become the norm, with typical trial periods ranging from 90 to 120 nights. This extended window, often lasting 3 to 4 months, is a direct response to the high perceived risk of buying a product sight unseen. It effectively replaces the in-store test experience with a low-cost, no-obligation flow of confidence.

This trial period is paired with a long-term warranty, providing a second layer of financial protection. The average warranty length for a new mattress is typically 10 to 20 years. This extended coverage mitigates the risk of premature failure, a critical factor for a durable good where the purchase is infrequent and expensive. The combination of a long trial and a long warranty reduces the perceived downside of the purchase decision.

The bottom line is that these two mechanisms-long trials and extended warranties-act as powerful flow-based risk mitigators. They lower the barrier to entry for online shopping by absorbing the financial risk of a bad fit or early defect, thereby accelerating the value flow from consumer to brand.