CHKP Misses Revenue, Beats Earnings Why the Market Remains Cautious

Check Point Software (CHKP) reported Q4 2025 results on Feb 12, 2026, exceeding EPS estimates by $0.63 but slightly missing revenue forecasts. The company maintained in-line guidance for 2026, reflecting disciplined execution despite macroeconomic headwinds.

Revenue

Total revenue rose 5.9% year-over-year to $744.90 million. Product and license revenue stood at $171.80 million, while software updates and maintenance contributed $248 million. Security subscriptions surged 11% to $325.10 million, underpinning the company’s subscription-driven strategy. Amortization of technology remained flat at $0, preserving overall revenue integrity.

Earnings/Net Income

Earnings per share (EPS) jumped 20.8% to $2.85, outpacing the prior year’s $2.36. Net income expanded 18.3% to $304.50 million, reinforcing the company’s nine-year track record of sustained profitability. The EPS performance underscores robust cost management and pricing power.

Price Action

CHKP shares fell 0.32% in the latest session, 6.68% for the week, and 13.44% month-to-date, reflecting mixed investor sentiment post-earnings.

Post-Earnings Price Action Review

A strategy of buying CHKP shares on earnings release dates and holding for 30 days yielded a 12.3% CAGR over three years, slightly trailing the S&P 500’s 13.6%. While the stock historically delivered 2.5% average returns post-earnings, the 30-day holding period may have constrained gains as momentum often persisted beyond the window. Volatility was tempered, with a beta of 1.2, aligning with market exposure. Shortening the holding period or integrating technical indicators could enhance returns.

CEO Commentary

CEO Nadav Zafrir highlighted strategic advancements in AI security and Exposure Management, emphasizing acquisitions of Cyclops and Cyata as catalysts for innovation. The restructured go-to-market strategy and organic growth in Workspace Security position the company for long-term differentiation.

Guidance

For 2026, Check Point targets Q1 revenue of $655–685 million and full-year revenue of $2.83–2.95 billion. Subscription revenue growth is projected at 10–14%, with non-GAAP EPS of $10.05–10.85 annually. Challenges include memory price pressures and FX risks, but strong gross margins and R&D incentives offset uncertainties.

Additional News

1. M&A Activity: Check Point acquired Cyclops (Exposure Management) and Cyata (AI governance), strengthening its security platform.

2. Price Target Cut: Cantor Fitzgerald lowered its price target to $190 from $200, citing revenue shortfalls despite strong EPS.

3. China Policy Shift: A report indicated Chinese authorities urging local firms to avoid U.S. and Israeli cybersecurity software, potentially impacting market access.

CEO Nadav Zafrir’s strategic focus on AI and Exposure Management positions Check Point to capitalize on evolving cybersecurity demands.