Chinese E-Commerce Giants Expanding Into Europe Amid U.S. Trade Uncertainty

The global e-commerce landscape is undergoing a seismic shift as Chinese giants like JD.com, Cainiao, and Shein accelerate their expansion into Europe. This strategic pivot is driven by U.S. trade uncertainty, including steep reciprocal tariffs and regulatory scrutiny, which have pushed Chinese firms to diversify their global supply chains and market access. For investors, this trend represents a dual opportunity: understanding the infrastructure investments underpinning these expansions and identifying European logistics stocks poised to benefit from the influx of capital and demand.

Strategic Diversification: From U.S. to Europe

Chinese e-commerce companies are no longer relying solely on the U.S. market. According to a report by GLP, a global logistics leader, Chinese firms have leased nearly 400,000 square meters of logistics space in Europe over the past five years, with JD.com and Goodcang (Zongteng Group) leading the charge. JD’s acquisition of UK warehouses in Milton Keynes and Coventry, for instance, underscores its intent to establish a long-term presence in Europe, while Goodcang’s 65,000 sqm expansion in Germany’s Mönchengladbach highlights the continent’s appeal for scalable, high-spec logistics hubs [1].

This shift is further amplified by EU policy changes. By 2028, the EU will eliminate the VAT exemption for low-value imports under €150, incentivizing e-commerce platforms to adopt local consolidation centers rather than shipping directly from China [3]. With 91% of EU e-commerce imports originating from China, the need for localized warehousing has become critical. Cainiao, Alibaba’s logistics arm, has already established automated warehouses in key European locations, leveraging 5G, AI, and robotics to manage thousands of stock-keeping units efficiently [4].

Implications for European Logistics Stocks

The expansion of Chinese e-commerce giants into Europe has created a ripple effect on the continent’s logistics sector. European logistics stocks, particularly those with diversified trade routes and digital infrastructure, have shown resilience amid U.S.-China trade tensions. For example, DHL demonstrated a 5.7% operating profit growth in 2024 despite disruptions caused by the U.S. termination of the $800 de minimis exemption for low-value imports [2]. In contrast, UPS saw a 19% stock decline year-to-date as it struggled to adapt to the shifting trade landscape [2].

However, the landscape shifted dramatically in May 2025 when a U.S.-China agreement to cut reciprocal tariffs triggered a stock rally among European logistics firms. Shares of Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd surged by over 10%, while Kuehne+Nagel, DSV, and Deutsche Post rose by more than 3% [4]. This volatility underscores the sector’s sensitivity to geopolitical developments and the growing importance of localized logistics networks.

Infrastructure Growth and Investment Projections

The European logistics infrastructure sector is projected to grow by USD 48.4 billion from 2025 to 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.4% [1]. This growth is fueled by Chinese e-commerce’s demand for efficient, AI-powered logistics solutions. For instance, Cainiao’s global logistics footprint now spans over 800,000 square meters across 18 countries, while JD Logistics plans to expand its overseas warehouses to over 1 million square meters by 2025 [4].

Chinese investments are also leveraging the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to bolster infrastructure in Southern and Eastern Europe. By 2023, Chinese BRI-related investments in Europe had reached $35 billion, focusing on transportation, logistics, and energy [2]. These projects are expected to facilitate smoother cross-border e-commerce operations and further integrate European logistics networks with global supply chains.

Risks and Regulatory Challenges

While the opportunities are substantial, investors must remain cautious. European regulatory complexities, including tightening investment screening regimes, could slow Chinese acquisitions. For example, Hungary and Türkiye have actively courted Chinese investments in EV and semiconductor sectors, but other EU nations remain wary of geopolitical risks [6]. Additionally, the EU’s focus on sustainability and carbon neutrality may require logistics firms to invest in green technologies, adding to operational costs.

Conclusion: A Strategic Inflection Point

The expansion of Chinese e-commerce giants into Europe represents a strategic inflection point for global supply chains. For investors, the key lies in identifying logistics stocks with robust digital infrastructure, diversified trade routes, and partnerships with Chinese e-commerce players. Companies like DHL, Cainiao, and GLP are well-positioned to capitalize on this trend, while European infrastructure projects aligned with BRI corridors offer long-term growth potential. As U.S. trade uncertainty persists, Europe’s logistics sector is likely to remain a focal point for Chinese capital—and a lucrative opportunity for investors who recognize the shift early.

Source:
[1] Chinese E-Commerce Giants Are Turning To Europe, [https://eu.glp.com/uncategorized/chinese-e-commerce-giants-are-turning-to-europe/]
[2] How EVs and US tariffs could drive Chinese deals into Europe, [https://mergers.whitecase.com/highlights/how-evs-and-us-tariffs-could-drive-chinese-deals-into-europe]
[3] EU Logistics Reform Spurs Shift to Local Warehousing, [https://www.forestshipping.com/eu-logistics-reform-local-warehousing]
[4] Smart logistics help Chinese firms stay ahead of curve, [https://www.chinadailyhk.com/hk/article/593128]
[5] E Commerce Logistics Market Outlook 2025 to 2035, [https://www.futuremarketinsights.com/reports/e-commerce-logistics-market]
[6] Chinese investment rebounds despite growing frictions, [https://merics.org/en/report/chinese-investment-rebounds-despite-growing-frictions-chinese-fdi-europe-2024-update]