China's yuan fixing survey range from 7.1802 to 7.1838

China's yuan fixing survey range from 7.1802 to 7.1838

China's yuan fixing range has been a focal point for investors and financial professionals, with recent fluctuations providing insights into market dynamics and geopolitical influences. On July 2, 2025, the yuan fixing range was set from 7.1802 to 7.1838, reflecting a period of volatility and uncertainty [1].

The yuan's recent performance has been influenced by renewed concerns over U.S. tariffs and trade tensions. On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to restore higher tariffs on August 1, prompting a brief weakening of the yuan against the dollar. However, the currency recovered after major state-owned banks intervened to support it, selling dollars and trimming initial losses [1].

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the midpoint rate for the onshore yuan at 7.1534 per dollar, 238 pips firmer than the Reuters' estimate of 7.1772. This gap between the official fixing and market projections was the widest since June 18, indicating that authorities want to keep the currency stable without rapid moves [1].

The yuan's appreciation has also been bolstered by China's domestic economic recovery, which has exceeded expectations. According to Lisheng Wang of Goldman Sachs, domestic sentiment has improved, and macroeconomic data suggest that while export performance still lags, domestic demand and resilience have exceeded forecasts. This has led to stronger capital inflows and more confidence in the yuan's stability [2].

In contrast, the U.S. dollar has faced downward pressure due to concerns over public debt and fiscal policy. International investors are increasingly concerned about the sustainability of America’s public debt and loose fiscal policies, which have weakened investor confidence in the dollar [2].

The yuan's performance for the remainder of the year will depend significantly on US-China trade relations. Improved sentiment at home and continued negotiations could bolster China’s export performance, while the weakening dollar is not just a reaction to economic fundamentals but also a shift in perception regarding US economic governance [2].

Technical analysis also suggests that the dollar remains under pressure due to political, policy, and Euro strength risks converging. The calm in today’s Asian forex session belies a volatile backdrop forming beneath the surface, with key catalysts such as the non-farm payrolls report, the looming July 9 tariff truce deadline, and a pivotal House vote on the USD 3.3 trillion tax-and-spending bill [2].

In conclusion, the yuan's fixing range and recent performance reflect a complex interplay of geopolitical tensions, domestic economic recovery, and global investor sentiment. As the year progresses, the yuan's trajectory will continue to be influenced by US-China trade relations and broader economic developments.

References:
[1] Reuters. (2025). Yuan hits two-week low on renewed US tariff worries. Retrieved from [https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L4N3T508M:0-yuan-hits-two-week-low-on-renewed-us-tariff-worries-prompts-state-bank-buying/](https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L4N3T508M:0-yuan-hits-two-week-low-on-renewed-us-tariff-worries-prompts-state-bank-buying/)
[2] Fastbull. (2025). Yuan strengthens as US dollar confidence wanes. Retrieved from [https://www.fastbull.com/news-detail/yuan-strengthens-as-us-dollar-confidence-wanes-chinas-4333964_0](https://www.fastbull.com/news-detail/yuan-strengthens-as-us-dollar-confidence-wanes-chinas-4333964_0)