U.S.–China Trade Truce, Big Tech Earnings in Focus as Stocks Open Lower; Oil and Gold Slip

Shortly after the opening bell, U.S. stocks edged lower with tech leading declines as investors looked ahead to Apple and Amazon reporting after the close and continued to analyze results from Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 188.20 points (−0.40%) to 47,443.8, the S&P 500 lost 35.53 (−0.52%) to 6,855, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 192 (−0.80%) to 23,766; the Russell 2000 was off 1.59 (−0.64%) to 245.25. Commodities softened alongside risk assets, with Gold Dec ’25 at 3,986.90 (−13.80, −0.34%) and Crude Oil Dec ’25 at 59.90 (−0.58, −0.96%). The early tone unfolded as traders also weighed headlines around a U.S.–China trade pause, a potential tailwind for supply chains and trade-sensitive groups.

With Apple and Amazon slated to report after the bell Thursday, Wall Street is still analyzing last night’s numbers from Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet, which collectively reinforced a single takeaway: the AI build-out is accelerating, and it’s expensive.

Across the big tech trio, 2025 AI capital spending now tops $200 billion, with management teams signaling another leg up in 2026 to secure compute, lower unit costs over time, and widen competitive moats. The trade-off is visible in margins: Alphabet is extracting operating leverage as Google Cloud growth (+34% to $15.2B) pairs with sturdy ads (Search $56.6B; YouTube ads $10.3B; Services +14%), while Microsoft is executing cleanly even as Azure bumps against capacity constraints after roughly 40% growth (39% in constant currency) and 37% guidance for the current quarter. Meta, for its part, is choosing speed—ad revenue +26% on improving unit economics—while front-loading costs and flagging “notably larger” capex and opex growth next year.

On the tech-investing narrative, Wedbush’s Daniel Ives argues that spending is the point, not the problem. As he puts it, “This is an AI Arms Race and what is fueling this next chapter of growth is Big Tech spending and that is NOT slowing down into 2026....which we view as a huge positive and validation moment for the AI Revolution bullish thesis.” He frames the current phase as Year 3 of an 8–10 year buildout, with capacity constraints potentially lingering 12 to 18 months—a backdrop that keeps Nvidia and AMD “front and center beneficiaries.”

Geopolitics provided a parallel catalyst. The United States and China agreed to a one-year trade truce, pairing a U.S. cut to fentanyl-related tariffs with China’s resumption of rare-earth exports and renewed soybean purchases—12 million metric tons this year and 25 million tons annually through 2028. A 12-month moratorium on escalatory actions effectively pauses new tariff and export-control measures through 2026, and the average tariff rate on Chinese goods drops to about 47% from 57%. Still, the pact arrived with few enforcement details, indicating that stability rather than resolution remains the near-term goal.