U.S.-China Trade Pact Omits Taiwan, Leaving Strategic Tensions Unresolved

U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that Chinese President Xi Jinping assured him Beijing would not take military action against Taiwan during his term, a pledge that has alleviated immediate concerns in Taipei but left broader strategic uncertainties. The assurance emerged in a post-meeting interview with 60 Minutes, where Trump stated that Xi and his team "openly said" they would avoid confrontation while he remains in office, citing mutual awareness of the "consequences" of such a move in his 60 Minutes interview. The two leaders discussed trade and fentanyl cooperation during their high-stakes meeting in South Korea but deliberately sidestepped the Taiwan issue, which Trump reiterated "never came up," according to a Times of India report.

The omission of Taiwan from the agenda aligns with Trump's dual-track approach to China: securing economic concessions while avoiding direct antagonism. According to the Times of India report, the U.S. agreed to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 57% to 47% and ease restrictions on rare earth exports, while China committed to purchasing U.S. soybeans and curbing fentanyl production. These trade adjustments, coupled with Trump's assurance of a planned April visit to China, signal a pivot toward stabilizing bilateral relations after years of friction. However, the absence of a clear U.S. stance on Taiwan has left analysts and Taiwanese officials cautious.

Taiwan's Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung emphasized confidence in U.S.-Taiwan ties, citing the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Assurances as enduring pillars of support, as noted in a Taiwan News report. President William Lai reinforced this resolve, rejecting China's "one country, two systems" reunification proposal and vowing to defend Taiwan's sovereignty and democratic system, according to a Mothership article. Despite these assurances, Beijing has reiterated its refusal to rule out force, with Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Peng Qing'en warning that "all necessary measures" remain on the table, as reported by Mothership.

The U.S. position on Taiwan remains enshrined in strategic ambiguity, a policy both parties have maintained to deter Chinese aggression without provoking conflict. Trump, when asked if he would deploy U.S. forces to defend Taiwan, deflected: "You'll find out if it happens," he said in his 60 Minutes interview. This noncommittal stance contrasts with China's assertive military drills near Taiwan and its diplomatic push for cross-strait unification.

For now, the Trump-Xi meeting appears to have averted an immediate crisis. Yet, as China escalates its pressure and Taiwan bolsters its defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2030, the long-term stability of the status quo remains uncertain, observers told Mothership. With Trump's re-election prospects and U.S. policy shifts looming, Taipei's confidence in Washington's support will be tested in the months ahead.