US-China Tariff Truce and Bitcoin’s $109K Resistance: How Geopolitical Stability Could Fuel the Next Bull Run

The world’s two largest economies have paused their trade war, and markets are betting big on the fallout. The U.S.-China tariff truce, effective May 14, 2025, has not only calmed trade tensions but also reignited a critical question for investors: How does geopolitical stability impact risk-on assets like Bitcoin? With Bitcoin hovering near $104,000—a level analysts call a “critical resistance cluster”—the answer could determine whether this truce sparks a new crypto bull run.

The Tariff Truce: A Geopolitical Pivot for Risk Assets

The temporary agreement slashes U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China reduces retaliatory levies from 125% to 10%. This 90-day “consultation period” has sent global markets surging: the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped over 1,100 points in a single session, while Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices followed suit.

For Bitcoin, this de-escalation is more than symbolic. Trade wars have historically acted as a tax on global liquidity, deterring cross-border investment and stifling risk appetite. By easing this friction, the truce reduces uncertainty for businesses and investors, creating a tailwind for assets that thrive on stability. Bitcoin’s price, a barometer of macroeconomic sentiment, has already risen nearly 38% from April’s lows, a trend analysts attribute to the truce’s announcement.

Bitcoin’s Technical Setup: $103.8K Resistance and the Path to $109K

Bitcoin’s current proximity to $103,800 is no accident. This level marks a confluence of technical resistance—a liquidity wall where prior buyers sold off—and a psychological barrier for traders. Analysts like TheRealMongoose and financialflagship note that breaking this zone could unlock a rally toward $109,500, a multi-year high.

The $109,000–$110,000 range, however, is no trivial hurdle. It represents a historical resistance ceiling where Bitcoin struggled to gain traction during its 2021 bull run. A sustained breach here would signal a paradigm shift, potentially drawing institutional capital that has remained cautious amid geopolitical volatility.

Why Institutions Will Follow the Truce’s Lead

The truce’s greatest impact may lie in its message to institutional investors: Geopolitical risks are manageable. For years, Bitcoin’s volatility has been tied to macro instability—think 2020’s pandemic sell-off or 2022’s crypto winter. Now, the 90-day window offers a testing ground for whether U.S.-China relations can stabilize long enough to justify permanent allocations.

Consider this: In 2020, the Phase One trade deal briefly boosted Bitcoin to $10,000. Today, with Bitcoin’s market cap 10x larger and macro stakes higher, a successful truce could trigger a similar—but far larger—institutional influx. Funds like Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust and corporate treasuries could accelerate purchases, leveraging the truce’s “wait-and-see” momentum.

The Risks: 90 Days of Treadmill Diplomacy

But this is no done deal. The truce explicitly excludes core disputes: intellectual property theft, state subsidies, and forced technology transfers remain unresolved. National security tariffs—like those targeting China’s fentanyl exports—also stay in place. If talks falter by August 11, 2025, tariffs could resurge, reversing gains.

Even within crypto, technical risks loom. A failure to breach $105,500 could trigger a $101,500–$97,500 retracement, per analysts like Senku010. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s energy-intensive mining sector faces regulatory headwinds, which the truce does nothing to address.

The Bottom Line: A 90-Day Dash for Bitcoin Bulls

The U.S.-China tariff truce has created a unique moment for Bitcoin. By reducing geopolitical noise, it has amplified the asset’s core value proposition: a hedge against instability in a world that’s just become slightly less unstable.

Investors should treat the next 90 days as a referendum on whether macro stability can outpace Bitcoin’s technical barriers. A sustained push through $103,800 would validate the truce’s impact, opening the door to $109,000—and beyond. Conversely, a breakdown below $101,500 would expose lingering fragility in both markets and geopolitics.

The clock is ticking. For Bitcoin bulls, the tariff truce isn’t just a ceasefire—it’s a launchpad.

Act now, but hedge your bets. The path to $109K is clear—if the world stays calm enough to walk it.