China's Shift in Soybean Trade: Exports and Imports in the Face of Economic Slowdown and US Tensions

China is reshaping soy trade by stepping up exports of soybean oil and testing deliveries of soybean meal from Argentina, marking a departure from longstanding trade flows. The changes are a means for China to chip away at its need for American soybeans if the trade war between Beijing and Washington persists. The shifts reflect a global supply-demand rebalancing in the vegetable oil market and China's need for soybean meal while other countries need soybean oil.

China, the world's largest buyer of soybeans, is quietly reshaping its trade in the oilseed's products in response to a slowing economy and ongoing trade tensions with the United States. The Asian nation is stepping up exports of soybean oil and testing deliveries of soybean meal from Argentina, marking a departure from longstanding trade flows.

According to Bloomberg, China exported about 127,000 tons of soyoil in the first half of 2025, exceeding full-year 2024 levels. These shipments are flowing to destinations including South Korea, Malaysia, and India, where edible oil demand remains robust [1]. The trend reflects a global supply-demand rebalancing in the vegetable oil market, as China needs soybean meal while other countries need soybean oil [1].

Meanwhile, China is exploring a new supply channel for soybean meal from Argentina. Bunge Global SA recently sold at least two shipments of the high-protein feed ingredient to Chinese buyers [2]. This move comes after Argentina reduced export tariffs, making its products more competitive [2]. The new shipments suggest that Chinese buyers are keen to hedge against uncertainty in US supplies as Beijing and Washington continue to joust over trade [2].

The changes are part of China's strategy to reduce its dependence on American soybeans, particularly in the face of potential trade disruptions. "China has plenty of crush capacity," said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX Financial Inc. "But its recent purchases of Argentine soymeal send a statement to the US that it’s willing to sacrifice that capacity to avoid buying US soybeans if Brazil can't fully meet its needs" [1].

These shifts in trade flows also reflect China's internal dynamics. Commercial inventories of soyoil have surged 70% since May, reaching an elevated level of 1.12 million tons. Chinese crushers have kept run rates high to ensure there’s enough soymeal for livestock rations, creating an unusual arbitrage opportunity of exporting surplus oil [1].

In summary, China's reshaping of soy trade is a strategic response to both internal economic pressures and external trade tensions. By diversifying its supply chain and reducing dependence on American soybeans, China is positioning itself to navigate potential disruptions in the global vegetable oil market.

References:
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-11/china-reshuffles-soy-trade-to-counter-local-glut-and-us-tensions
[2] https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/china-has-purchased-another-batch-of-soybean-meal-from-argentina/