As the year 2024 draws to a close, China's exports have shown remarkable resilience, with December likely witnessing a significant uptick in outbound shipments. This surge in exports can be attributed to the anticipation of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House and the accompanying trade risks. According to a Reuters poll, China's December exports are expected to rise by 7.3% year-on-year in value terms, up from a 6.7% expansion in November (Reuters, 2025-01-10).



The expected increase in exports is a clear indication that Chinese producers are front-loading their shipments to major markets, taking advantage of the current favorable trade environment before potential tariff threats or other trade barriers are implemented by the Trump administration. This strategic move allows exporters to secure their market share and mitigate the potential impact of future trade restrictions.



The narrowing of China's import contraction in December can also be attributed to several factors. First, exporters rushed to secure tech products in anticipation of tighter semiconductor export controls from the United States. This led to an increase in imports, as factory managers stocked up on components and materials before potential restrictions took effect. Additionally, South Korea, a leading indicator of China's imports, reported an 8.6% increase in shipments to China in December. This increase in imports from South Korea contributed to the narrowing of China's overall import contraction. Lastly, the expectation of fresh trade risks, such as Trump's tariff threats, may have prompted businesses to import more goods in December to avoid potential disruptions in their supply chains.



While the proposed 60% tariffs on Chinese imports by the Trump administration could have a significant impact on China's export growth in the long term, the situation remains uncertain. Higher tariffs would make Chinese products more expensive in the U.S. market, reducing their competitiveness against domestic and other foreign products. This could lead to a decrease in exports to the U.S. and a loss of market share for Chinese companies. Furthermore, the proposed tariffs could disrupt global supply chains, as companies may choose to relocate their production facilities out of China to avoid the higher tariffs. This could lead to a decrease in China's export growth and contribute to a broader economic slowdown in the country.

In conclusion, China's December exports likely gained momentum ahead of tariff uncertainty, as producers rushed to move inventory to major markets before potential trade risks materialized. The narrowing of China's import contraction can be attributed to front-loading of imports, increased shipments from South Korea, and the anticipation of fresh trade risks. While the proposed 60% tariffs on Chinese imports could have a significant impact on China's export growth in the long term, the situation remains uncertain, and businesses are taking proactive measures to mitigate potential risks. As the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, businesses operating in or with China must remain vigilant and adapt to the changing trade environment to maintain their competitiveness and market share.