China's Robot Flow: Scale, Capacity, and Market Share

The Chinese robotics industry has expanded dramatically, with revenue doubling from 106.1 billion yuan ($15 billion) in 2020 to 237.89 billion yuan in 2024. This growth accelerated recently, as industry revenue increased by 29.5 percent year on year in the first three quarters of this year.

This surge is driven by massive physical deployment. Last year, China installed 295,000 industrial robots, the highest annual total on record, accounting for 54% of all global installations. Domestically, Chinese brands now command a commanding 57% of their home market, overtaking foreign suppliers for the first time.

The export engine is also firing. In the first three quarters of this year, exports reached $1.24 billion, marking a 56 percent year-on-year increase. This follows a rapid climb from $390 million in 2020 to $1.15 billion in 2024, showing the industry's global reach is expanding alongside its domestic scale.

The Production Infrastructure Lead

The industry's scaling bottleneck is now being addressed with dedicated manufacturing infrastructure. The Beijing Innovation Center launched a pilot platform last year with an annual pilot production capacity of up to 5,000 embodied humanoid robots. This integrated facility aims to transform the sector from costly, inefficient prototyping to standardized, data-driven small-batch production.

This capacity buildout is translating into immediate market dominance. In 2025, nearly 90% of all humanoid robots sold globally were Chinese, with six of the top sellers based in the country. The lead is already substantial, as China's top seller, Unitree, shipped 5,500 units last year-more than Tesla's entire 2025 production target.

The setup is now focused on converting that volume advantage into long-term leadership. With the pilot platform operational and policy support in place, the focus shifts to using this infrastructure to refine processes, ensure quality, and accelerate the feedback loop from real-world deployment. This could solidify China's position as the world's primary supplier for the foreseeable future.

Catalysts and Risks for the Global Flow

The primary near-term catalyst is the acceleration from R&D to industrialization. Beijing's robotics revenue grew by nearly 40% in 2025, fueled by new pilot production platforms that are standardizing the path from prototype to volume. This shift is converting China's early design lead into tangible market share, as evidenced by nearly 90% of all humanoid robots sold globally in 2025 being Chinese.

The main friction point is potential trade escalation. As US policies aim to counter China's manufacturing advantage, the sector is vulnerable to tariffs or export controls. This could disrupt supply chains and slow the deployment of Chinese robots in key Western markets, creating a direct headwind to the export growth seen in 2024.

A more subtle but persistent risk is the competitive threat from Western software and AI autonomy. While China dominates on volume and hardware, companies like Figure AI and Agility Robotics are focusing on advanced software capabilities. This could challenge China's lead on non-volume fronts, such as complex task execution and adaptability, in the longer-term commercialization phase.