China Predicts 100 eVTOL Firms by 2030, U.S. Accelerates Pilot Testing

In August 2024, Chinese enterprises established the China Low Altitude Economic Alliance (CLAEA) to advance eVTOLs (electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft). At Beijing’s conference this April, the head of CLAEA Luo Jun boldly forecast that “by 2030, China will have at least 100 eVTOL firms,” which is reminiscent of China’s EV success story. The benefits for such an alliance are obvious. For an entire new industry to emerge, there has to be tight coordination between engineers, policymakers, and infrastructure facilitators. But with China having already crossed the milestone of a commercial eVTOL, where is the U.S. in this emerging market?

The federal government only moved to catch up with China in early June. President Trump’s executive orders created an accelerated pilot testing program for eVTOL aircraft, for purposes of air taxis, cargo, EMS, and defense logistics. All in an effort to remove the “burdensome red tape.” Two urban air mobility (UAM) companies stand out as the most likely to finally deliver viable eVTOLs in American airspace.

Joby Aviation Inc. delivered its first air taxi to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) market, a Gulf state known for welcoming innovation instead of bureaucratic parasitism. In early May, the company successfully completed the testing of two eVTOLs simultaneously, racking up over 40,000 miles of test flights with its 6-aircraft fleet. For greater flight efficiency and significant noise reduction, Joby adopted a tilt-rotor approach. This means it lifts off like a regular helicopter and then shifts into forward flight. According to Joby, the S4 2.0 has a top speed of to 200-mph, able to cross 100 miles on a single battery charge. The aircraft carries four passengers in addition to the pilot. Although it is not autonomous at the moment, Joby’s solution does have advanced sensors for future autonomous scaling. Of course, having a pilot is a major expenditure that has to be included in the price of tickets, so Joby will have to deliver autonomous air taxis to be competitive globally with China. A move in that direction was Joby’s acquisition of Xwing Inc. in June 2024, which specializes in autonomous aviation and has already completed 250 fully autonomous flights. The FAA’s regulatory framework would also have to be tweaked to allow passenger flights without a human operator. In its current mode, Joby plans to deploy air taxis some time in 2026. After the funding from Toyota Motor Corporation worth $250 million in late May, the company extended its cash runway. For Q1 2025 ending March, Joby Aviation reported $813 million in cash and short-term investments, excluding Toyota’s inflows worth $500 million in total.

Archer Aviation Inc. advanced the most in eVTOL deployment. So much so that the company was already selected as the official air taxi provider for the LA28 Olympic and Paralympic Games. Like Joby, Archer’s first commercial move is also in the UAE, having completed test flights in early July. The similarities don’t end there, as Archer employs the tilt-rotor system as well, achieving noise-reduction and flight time benefits. The company’s Midnight eVTOL is on par with a range of 100 miles and a top speed of 150 mph. Midnight can also carry four passengers plus a pilot. The similarities and capabilities between Archer’s Midnight and Joby’s S4 2.0 once again indicate these two companies have the most realistic UAM approaches. However, Archer is getting more tightly integrated into the wider military-industrial complex. Namely, privately-held and well-funded Anduril Industries formed an exclusive partnership with Archer for weaponized hybrid VTOL. Anduril itself has close ties with both Palantir and Oracle, as a part of an emerging AI-powered defense initiative. Therefore, exposure to ACHR stock has an added benefit of exposure to the U.S. hegemony maintenance.

In summary, both Joby Aviation and Archer Aviation are at the forefront of the eVTOL market in the U.S., with Joby focusing on innovation and efficiency, while Archer is integrating more closely with the military-industrial complex. Both companies have made significant strides in testing and deployment, with Joby's tilt-rotor approach and Archer's partnership with Anduril Industries being key differentiators. The competition between these two firms is likely to drive further innovation and advancement in the eVTOL sector, with both companies aiming to deliver viable air taxis in the near future. The regulatory environment and market demand will play crucial roles in determining which company takes off faster in this emerging market.