China Aims to Lead Global Semiconductor Foundry by 2030 with 30% Capacity Share

Mainland China is rapidly expanding its chipmaking capacity, positioning itself to become the world’s leading semiconductor foundry hub by 2030. This surge is driven by the country’s strategic push to manufacture its own technology, especially as U.S. export restrictions tighten. According to the latest projections from Yole Group, China’s share of global foundry capacity is expected to rise to 30% by 2030, up from 21% in 2024. This growth trajectory places China ahead of Taiwan, the current leader with a 23% share in 2023. China has already surpassed South Korea, Japan, and the U.S. in capacity rankings, with a 15% share of global foundry capacity in 2024.

This acceleration is fueled by significant state investment in the chipmaking industry, notably through the China Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, which has supported the development of national champions like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor. In 2024, China’s monthly wafer production increased by 15% year-on-year, and the construction of new semiconductor fabrication plants, such as Huahong’s 12-inch facility in Wuxi, further enhances the scale and speed of China’s manufacturing capabilities.

Geopolitical tensions are also a driving factor in China’s push for semiconductor dominance. Recently, Taiwan imposed strict new export controls targeting Chinese firms like Huawei and SMIC, effectively blacklisting them from accessing advanced Taiwanese semiconductor technologies. This move aligns Taiwan more closely with U.S. policy and aims to close loopholes exploited by Chinese companies to circumvent existing sanctions. The updated rules require government approval for any high-tech exports to the blacklisted entities, further isolating China’s chip sector from cutting-edge global supply chains.

The implications of this capacity race are significant for both the AI and crypto sectors. Semiconductors are crucial for AI model training and inference, as well as crypto mining operations. Despite export bans, Chinese firms like Huawei and SMIC are developing competitive AI chips. However, the loss of access to leading-edge Taiwanese tech could slow their progress and increase reliance on domestic innovation. For the crypto sector, chip supply constraints can directly impact mining efficiency and network security. U.S. and Taiwanese restrictions have already raised operational costs for Chinese mining firms. If China succeeds in scaling its foundry capacity and closing the technology gap, it could stabilize domestic supply for crypto miners and AI developers, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape for both sectors.