Chiliz/Tether USDt Market Overview: 2025-09-11 12:00 ET

• CHZ/USDT traded lower with a bearish bias, closing at 0.04170 after a 24-hour range of 0.04285–0.04144
• Volatility and momentum both declined in the final hours, with volume concentrated in late afternoon ET
• Key support at 0.04200 held briefly but was retested, suggesting bearish control
• RSI shows oversold conditions while price remains below key moving averages
• Divergence noted between price and turnover, with large volume not translating to significant movement

Market Summary

The Chiliz/Tether USDt pair (CHZ/USDT) opened at 0.04276 on 2025-09-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.04170 on 2025-09-11 at 12:00 ET. The price reached a high of 0.04285 and a low of 0.04144 during the 24-hour period. Total traded volume amounted to 47,871,611 CHZ, with a notional turnover of approximately $1,994,449 USD (calculated using closing prices).

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours displayed a distinct bearish bias, with a key support zone forming around 0.04200–0.04210. This level was tested multiple times but ultimately failed to hold as selling pressure intensified. A notable bearish engulfing pattern was seen near 0.04250 on the 15-minute chart, followed by a long lower shadow at 0.04234–0.04197, suggesting strong bearish control. A doji near 0.04200 and the current close near 0.04170 indicate potential exhaustion from the selloff, but buyers have yet to show consistent strength.

Moving Averages & Bollinger Bands

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (SMA) were above the current price at ~0.04225 and ~0.04215 respectively, reinforcing the bearish bias. The price remained below both, indicating short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages were not available in this dataset, but the broader context suggests a bearish trend continuation.

Bollinger Bands widened during the selloff from 0.04234 to 0.04197, showing a volatility expansion. The price closed near the lower band at ~0.04170, indicating oversold conditions and a potential near-term bounce. However, the price remains firmly below the middle band, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed bearish divergence, with the histogram and signal line both declining toward negative territory. The RSI dropped below 30 into oversold conditions (~28 at close), signaling potential for a short-term rebound. However, the RSI failed to cross above 30 after multiple attempts, suggesting buyers may still be hesitant.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly between 19:30 and 20:30 ET on 2025-09-10, during the large selloff from 0.04234 to 0.04197. This was accompanied by a sharp decline in price, confirming bearish conviction. More recently, volume has decreased while price has remained within a tight range, suggesting a potential pause in directional movement.

Notional turnover also showed a sharp drop in the final 6 hours, despite price remaining near the 24-hour low. This divergence could indicate a buildup of short-term bearish positions or a potential short-covering rally in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.04285 (high) to 0.04197 (low), the 61.8% level (~0.04236) and 38.2% level (~0.04259) both failed to hold, indicating strong bearish momentum. On the larger 24-hour swing, the 38.2% retracement (~0.04230) and 61.8% (~0.04260) levels were also tested but failed to provide significant support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest could be constructed using a strategy that triggers a sell signal when price closes below a 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart and RSI drops below 30. Stop-loss could be placed at the nearest Fibonacci retracement level, with a target at the next support level (e.g., 0.04150–0.04140). Given today’s price action, such a strategy would have triggered a sell on the early bearish break and held through the selloff. A long signal could be considered if the price breaks above 0.04200 with rising RSI and volume, suggesting a potential reversal.

Forward-Looking View & Risk Caveat

Price appears to be consolidating near the 0.04170 level, with oversold RSI and a failed attempt to hold 0.04200 suggesting possible short-term volatility. A break below 0.04140 could reinforce bearish momentum, while a sustained rally above 0.04200 may test the 0.04220–0.04230 range. Investors should remain cautious, as the broader bearish trend has yet to show a strong reversal.