Chiliz/Tether Market Overview

Summary• CHZUSDT traded in a tight range, with bearish pressure evident in lower closing levels.• Volume spiked during early Asian hours, but failed to confirm a breakout.• RSI and MACD suggest waning momentum, with price hovering near 15-min support.• Volatility slightly expanded in the last 6 hours, reflecting mixed order flow.• Turnover and price failed to align, signaling potential indecision among traders.

Chiliz/Tether (CHZUSDT) opened at 0.03404 on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.03452, and closed at 0.03402 at 12:00 ET the following day. The 24-hour trading range was between 0.03368 and 0.03452, with a total volume of 55,233,027 and a notional turnover of $1,874,168. The pair displayed a lack of directional bias, with price testing multiple key levels without firm conviction.

Structure and formations over the 15-minute chart revealed a bearish engulfing pattern forming near the 0.03425 level at the start of the Asian session, followed by a series of lower highs and lower closes. The price found initial support at the 0.03402 level, which coincided with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of a prior bullish swing. A doji formed at 0.03408 in the early morning, suggesting indecision between buyers and sellers. These patterns imply that traders may be watching for a break of the 0.03402 level to trigger further bearish action.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed below the price at one point during the session, suggesting short-term bearish momentum. However, both lines later converged with the price, indicating some stabilization. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA (0.03412) is slightly above the 200-period MA (0.03405), suggesting a neutral to mildly bullish bias in the medium term. The 200-period MA has served as a recurring support in prior sessions, and a test of this level in the next 24 hours could be pivotal.

The MACD crossed below its signal line during the Asian session, forming a bearish signal. The RSI has been oscillating within the 45–55 range, showing no signs of overbought or oversold conditions, and pointing to a balanced market. Bollinger Bands showed a modest expansion in the last 6 hours, with price closing near the lower band but not breaking through it. This suggests that while volatility is increasing slightly, downward pressure has not yet overwhelmed the market.

Volume and turnover data revealed a spike in activity during the 23:00–00:30 ET period, with the largest 15-minute notional turnover occurring at 0.03431. However, this period coincided with a failed attempt to push above 0.03435, indicating that the increased volume failed to confirm a bullish breakout. Divergence between volume and price suggests caution. The highest single-candle turnover occurred during the 0.03431–0.03449 high, but the price failed to follow through with a meaningful rally.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the most recent 15-minute swing (from 0.03402 to 0.03452) show the 61.8% retracement at 0.03431. This level coincided with a strong rejection in the early hours of the session. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the larger bullish move aligns with the 0.03412 level, which is also close to the 50-period MA. A breakdown below the 0.03402 support could trigger a move toward the 0.03384 level, which has previously served as a psychological floor.

Backtest Hypothesis
To evaluate the impact of a “MACD Golden Cross,” we propose running an event-driven back-test for CHZUSDT using closing prices from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-10. The strategy would identify all Golden Cross dates and measure post-event performance, including average returns, success rate, and volatility. This approach will provide insight into the reliability of the MACD as a signal for trend initiation. We will apply a 72-hour holding period for each signal and include a 2% stop-loss for risk management. The results will be visualized in an interactive chart module, allowing for easy exploration of performance metrics and timing signals.