Chiliz/Tether Market Overview: 2025-11-06

Summary
• CHZUSDT drifted lower, closing near a 15-minute support level after a sharp drop post-03:15 ET.
• RSI and MACD show weakening momentum, with prices consolidating near key Fibonacci 38.2% support.
• Volume and turnover remained stable, with no divergences noted despite price declines.

Chiliz/Tether (CHZUSDT) opened at $0.02906 at 12:00 ET-1 and drifted lower over the 24-hour period, reaching a low of $0.02835 before closing at $0.02867 at 12:00 ET. The pair touched a high of $0.02966, showing moderate volatility. Total volume for the period was 44,345,400 CHZ, with a notional turnover of approximately $13,000,000.

On the 15-minute chart, prices failed to hold above $0.02933 after a breakout attempt around 03:15 ET, triggering a sell-off. A potential 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.02897 now appears to act as immediate support. The 20-period moving average (SMA20) is bearish, sloping downward and currently at $0.02905, while the 50-period SMA is at $0.02913, suggesting short-term bearish alignment.

Momentum indicators confirm the downtrend: RSI has fallen below 50, reaching 35, and shows no signs of overbought conditions, while MACD remains in negative territory with a bearish crossover recently formed. Bollinger Bands have expanded, with prices sitting near the lower band at $0.02845, indicating a period of volatility. Volume has remained relatively stable, without divergences that would suggest a reversal.

Prices may test the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.0282 next if the current bearish bias continues. A break above $0.0291 could rekindle short-term bullish momentum, but this is contingent on increased buying pressure and a close above the 50-period SMA.

Backtest Hypothesis: A potential strategy could involve identifying bullish reversal patterns like the Bullish Engulfing and exiting on a price close above a defined resistance level. Given the recent bearish drift, such a strategy would need to be tested against CHZUSDT’s daily chart from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-06. Key parameters for backtesting include using daily candles, defining resistance as the previous 10-day high, and exiting on the first daily close above that level. If no such close occurs within 20 trading days, a mandatory exit would be enforced as a max-hold rule. Assuming a 100% allocation per trade with no leverage, the backtest would evaluate the profitability and risk-reward profile of the strategy.