Chiliz/Tether (CHZUSDT) Market Overview: October 9, 2025

• CHZ/USDT drifted lower, closing near 0.04097 after a bearish breakout from a 24-hour high of 0.04337.
• Momentum weakened as RSI approached oversold levels, suggesting limited near-term downside.
• Volatility expanded in the early hours, but declining turnover in recent hours hints at waning selling pressure.
• A key support level appears to be forming around 0.04050-0.04070, with a bearish breakdown expected if this fails.

The 24-hour candle for Chiliz/Tether (CHZUSDT) opened at 0.04247 on October 8 at 16:00 ET and closed at 0.04097 on October 9 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 0.04337 and a low of 0.04024, registering a total volume of 92.9 million tokens and a turnover of approximately $3.9 million. Price action shows a steady downward bias amid moderate volatility.

Structure and formations suggest a bearish setup, with a series of lower highs and lower lows forming a descending channel. The price found support around 0.04050–0.04070 on several occasions, forming a potential key level for near-term traders. A long lower shadow on the candle at 0.04034-0.04056 suggests some buying interest at lower levels, but it was quickly negated by a follow-through decline. A doji at 0.04056 hints at a possible short-term equilibrium between buyers and sellers.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a bearish crossover, with the 20-period line below the 50-period line. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA continues to trend lower, reinforcing the bearish bias. Price remains below both the 200-day and 100-day moving averages, indicating a long-term downtrend remains intact. This suggests that any attempted rally may face resistance from these key trendlines.

MACD remains in negative territory, with the histogram contracting, signaling decreasing bearish momentum. RSI has moved into oversold territory, which could hint at near-term support. Bollinger Bands have widened during the early part of the session, indicating elevated volatility, but they have since contracted slightly, suggesting a potential consolidation phase ahead. The price has tested the lower band multiple times, but it remains above the 1.5 standard deviation level.

Volume has remained relatively consistent throughout the session, with no large spikes indicating sharp selling or buying pressure. Notional turnover has mirrored the price action closely, providing confirmation of the bearish trend. A divergence between volume and price is not evident, so the bearish case remains intact for now. A breakdown below 0.04050 could trigger further downside, with the next support level likely at 0.04020–0.04030.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the recent high of 0.04337 to the low of 0.04024 show key levels at 38.2% (0.04235), 50% (0.04180), and 61.8% (0.04125). The price has already tested the 61.8% level and is now consolidating near the 50% level, which could act as resistance if buyers re-enter the market.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential strategy could involve shorting CHZ/USDT on a break below the 0.04070 support level with a stop above the 0.04100 level. A tight risk-reward ratio of 1:1.5 is achievable by targeting 0.04024 as the first profit target, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The setup is supported by a bearish MACD, RSI near oversold, and the price sitting at the lower Bollinger Band. A 5–10% position size is recommended, with a time frame of 24–48 hours.