Chiliz/Tether (CHZUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-09-22

• CHZUSDT declined sharply overnight, closing at a 24-hour low near $0.0388 with significant volume and turnover.
• Momentum shifted bearish as RSI entered oversold territory while MACD remained negative.
• A key support level was tested at $0.0387–0.0389, accompanied by a consolidation pattern post-break.
• Volatility expanded after midnight, with Bollinger Bands widening and price staying near the lower band.
• Divergence between price and volume suggests a potential pause or reversal near recent lows.

Chiliz/Tether (CHZUSDT) opened at $0.04232 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.03882 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22. The pair hit a high of $0.04248 and a low of $0.03756. Total 24-hour volume amounted to 34,685,020.0 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $1,411,300 (assuming a 100% USD-weighted average price).

The price action displayed a pronounced bearish bias, characterized by a sharp decline after 06:00 ET and a consolidation phase at the lower end of the range. Key support was identified at $0.0387–0.0389, where price found buyers for a time, forming a potential base. Resistance levels above $0.0420 showed limited buying pressure. Notable bearish candlestick patterns included a long lower shadow and a hanging man formation near $0.0390, indicating bearish continuation.

A 20-period and 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart showed a clear downtrend, with the 20 EMA crossing below the 50 EMA (death cross) early in the session. Daily EMAs of 50, 100, and 200 periods also showed bearish alignment, with the price below all three lines. The 50 EMA appeared as a critical dynamic resistance, while the 100 and 200 EMAs acted as bearish confirmations of the broader trend.

The RSI indicator dropped below 30 in the early morning hours, signaling oversold conditions, though buying pressure failed to materialize effectively. The MACD histogram remained negative throughout, with the line and signal line showing bearish divergence. Bollinger Bands widened significantly after midnight, reflecting increased volatility, and the price closed near the lower band, suggesting potential for a bounce or further consolidation. Fibonacci levels indicated key support at the 61.8% retracement of the prior bullish swing near $0.0390 and $0.0389.

The volume profile showed a notable increase during the sharp decline from $0.0412 to $0.0399, with turnover spiking near $0.03912. However, volume weakened at the lower end of the range, suggesting a potential exhaustion of bearish momentum. A divergence between price and volume was observed as the price hit a new 24-hour low while volume decreased. This may indicate a potential pause or reversal in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtest strategy could involve a long entry near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior swing, with a stop-loss just below the 78.6% level and a target at the 50% retracement. Alternatively, a short entry could be triggered on a close below $0.0387 with a stop above $0.0390 and a target at $0.0375. The strategy would rely on the RSI and MACD confirming bearish momentum and the price staying below the 50 EMA. Given the current volatility and low volume at recent lows, this could serve as a short-term scalp or reversal setup.