Chevron Surges 2.74% on Venezuela Expansion Hopes and Analyst Upgrades: Can This Momentum Sustain?

Summary
• Chevron (CVX) rockets 2.74% to $168.36, nearing its 52-week high of $168.96.
• Analysts at Jefferies raise price target to $189, citing Venezuela and Kazakhstan production catalysts.
• Options market frenzy: 2026-01-23 call options at $165 strike see 215.94% price change ratio.
• Sector peers like Exxon Mobil (XOM) rally 3.69%, signaling broader energy sector optimism.

Chevron’s intraday surge reflects a perfect storm of geopolitical tailwinds, strategic asset plays, and analyst upgrades. With Venezuela expansion talks, TCO production milestones, and a $100B U.S. investment plan in the mix, the stock’s 2.74% gain underscores investor confidence in its ability to capitalize on volatile energy markets.

Venezuela Expansion and Strategic Partnerships Drive Chevron's Rally
Chevron’s 2.74% intraday surge is fueled by its involvement in President Trump’s $100B Venezuela oil revival plan, positioning it as the sole major U.S. operator in the country. The company’s collaboration with Quantum Energy Partners on a $22B Lukoil asset bid and its 50% stake in Kazakhstan’s TCO project—set to boost output by 260,000 barrels daily—add tangible near-term cash-flow catalysts. Analyst upgrades, including Jefferies’ $189 price target, further amplify optimism. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in Iran and OPEC+ production adjustments create a bullish backdrop for energy stocks.

Oil & Gas Sector Rally Led by Chevron and Exxon Mobil
The Oil & Gas Exploration and Production sector is surging, with Chevron’s 2.74% gain closely followed by Exxon Mobil’s (XOM) 3.69% rally. Both stocks benefit from Trump’s Venezuela push and OPEC+ output adjustments. However, Chevron’s unique positioning in Venezuela and its TCO expansion give it a distinct edge. The sector’s broader momentum is also driven by rising crude prices amid Iran-related supply risks and India’s LNG demand surge.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls and Gamma-Driven Bets
• Technical Indicators: 200-day MA: $150.06 (below current price); RSI: 71.75 (overbought); MACD: 2.91 (bullish divergence).
• Key Levels: Watch $165 (200-day MA) as support and $168.96 (52-week high) as resistance.
• Options Focus: Aggressive bulls should target CVX20260123C165 and CVX20260123C162.5, both with high leverage ratios and gamma sensitivity.

Top Option 1: CVX20260123C165
• Code: CVX20260123C165
• Type: Call
• Strike: $165
• Expiry: 2026-01-23
• IV: 20.17% (moderate)
• Leverage Ratio: 35.93% (high)
• Delta: 0.763 (moderate)
• Theta: -0.128 (high time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0546 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: $257,246
• Why: High gamma and leverage make it ideal for a 5% upside move (targeting $176.78).

Top Option 2: CVX20260123C162.5
• Code: CVX20260123C162.5
• Type: Call
• Strike: $162.5
• Expiry: 2026-01-23
• IV: 20.32% (moderate)
• Leverage Ratio: 25.02% (high)
• Delta: 0.878 (moderate)
• Theta: -0.099 (high time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0355 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: $136,399
• Why: Balances delta and gamma for a 5% move (targeting $170.63).

Payoff Estimation: At a 5% upside (to $176.78), CVX20260123C165 yields $11.78 per contract, while CVX20260123C162.5 nets $14.28. Both contracts offer asymmetric reward potential given Chevron’s proximity to key resistance levels.

Backtest Chevron Stock Performance
The backtest of CVX's performance after a 3% intraday increase from 2022 to the present shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is 52.16%, the 10-day win rate is slightly higher at 52.53%, and the 30-day win rate is 54.03%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. However, the maximum return during the backtest period was only 0.79%, which suggests that even though there is a higher chance of positive returns, the overall returns are modest.

Position for the Next Catalyst: Venezuela and TCO Updates
Chevron’s momentum hinges on its Venezuela expansion and TCO production updates in early 2026. With the stock trading near its 52-week high and options volatility primed, bulls should monitor the $168.96 level for a breakout confirmation. Meanwhile, Exxon Mobil’s 3.69% gain highlights sector-wide optimism. Investors are advised to initiate long-dated calls at $165 strike or scale into bullish positions near $162.5 as the stock tests critical support. Watch for Trump’s Venezuela policy announcements and TCO’s production ramp-up—either could trigger a parabolic move.